{"msg": "677\nAXNT20 KNHC 041049\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1040 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 49W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15\nto 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extend \nfrom 08N to 20N between 42W and 60W.\nA tropical wave is over the W Caribbean with axis along 80W, \nsouth of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate\nconvection is from 10N to 20N between 70W and 82W. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues \nsouthwestward to 10N22W to 08N30W. The ITCZ extends from 08N30W \nto 07N45W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical \nwave, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 13W\nand 31W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nMiddle to upper level diffluent flow and moisture inflow by SE\nflow from the Caribbean continue to fuel scattered heavy showers\nand tstms along the E Mexico offshores and over the NW Gulf behind\na pre-frontal surface trough that extends from 29N91W to just NE\nof Tampico, Mexico. Similar shower activity is ongoing over the NE\nGulf offshore waters. Moderate to fresh NNE winds and moderate\nseas are behind the trough. Ahead of the trough, a weaker pressure\ngradient support gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to\nmoderate seas. \nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will follow a trough \nalong the E Mexican coast to Veracruz through Tue. A ridge will \nextend from the western Atlantic into north Florida through today,\nsupporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas \nacross much of the central and eastern Gulf. Looking ahead, this \nridge will shift SE into midweek ahead of a slowly moving front, \nwhich will stall over the northern Gulf by midweek. Fresh NE to E \nwinds and building seas are forecast N of the front, with fresh to\nstrong NW to N winds possible off Veracruz through the early part\nof the week. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas \nwill persist elsewhere through the latter part of the week.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nModerate to fresh E to SE winds are across the NW and central\nCaribbean waters while moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere.\nSeas are moderate over the central basin and slight elsewhere. An\nupper level low to the NE of Hispaniola continue to support\nscattered heavy showers over the Dominican Republic adjacent\nwaters and southern Haiti. Otherwise, upper level diffluent flow\nand a tropical wave support similar shower activity over the\ncentral basin and the lee side of Cuba adjacent waters. \nFor the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will \nsupport moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and \ncentral Caribbean through Tue morning, except in the Gulf of \nHonduras where fresh winds will prevail through Thu night, and \noffshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh to strong \nwill pulse at night through Mon. Afterward, a cold front will move\nacross the waters N of the region, further lowering the pressure \ngradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the\nbasin. Otherwise, locally heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms\nare possible across Hispaniola today, mainly over Haiti and \nwestern Hispaniola. Available moisture and local effects as \ndaytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting, \nwill likely increase the chances of rain in the area. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA broad surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high NNE of Bermuda\nand a 1024 mb high W of the Azores near 39N45W extends across \nthe subtropical Atlantic waters, supporting moderate or weaker\nwinds and slight to moderate seas, except for moderate to fresh NE\nwinds near the Canary Islands. There is a weakeness in the ridge\nbeing analyzed as a surface trough that extends from 31N58W to the\nDominican Republic adjacent waters where an upper level low is\nsupporting a cluster of heavy showers and tstms. Winds and seas\nare likely higher in this area of convection.  \nFor the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western \nAtlantic across Bermuda to the Carolinas will shift eastward \nthrough Mon ahead of a cold front that will briefly stall off the \nNE Florida coast before it merges with a trailing cold front. \nFresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the front, but\nstay over the NE coastal and offshore waters of NE Florida \nthrough Wed. Gentle to moderate and slight seas will persist \nelsewhere.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215826038694281223", "issued": "2026-10-04T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215826038694281223"}