{"msg": "570\nAXPZ20 KNHC 040850\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0830 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 20.2N 113.2W at 04/0900 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with\ngusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of \ncenter. Rachel is moving slowly toward the west-northwest, and \nA turn toward the west with some increase in forward speed is \nexpected during the next 72 h. Rachel is forecast to start a \ngradual weakening trend in the next 12 hours or so. Swells \ngenerated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of west- \ncentral Mexico through the weekend and the Baja California \nPeninsula through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life- \nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 11N91W to 14N100W, \nthen resumes near 13N118W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate \nto isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between\n86W and 90W, from 00N to 16N between 90W and 105W, and from 00N\nto 10N between 128W and 138W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle\nmoderate winds, and moderate to rough seas in mixed swell, \nprevail over the offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds\nand slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of California. Seas \nof 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are impacting the entrance\nto the Gulf of California, the offshore waters of Baja \nCalifornia Sur, and the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico \nwest of 105W.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 20.2N 113.2W at 2 AM \nPDT, and is moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 968 mb. Rachel will move to 20.3N 114.0W this \nafternoon, 20.4N 115.3W Mon morning, 20.5N 116.8W Mon afternoon, \n20.6N 118.4W Tue morning, 20.6N 120.0W Tue afternoon, and 20.9N \n121.6W Wed morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near \n21.8N 124.6W early Thu. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to\npropagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja \nCalifornia, and mainly south of Punta Eugenia, through at least \nMon night. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of \nCalifornia, including the entrance to the Gulf through tonight. \nModerate to fresh W to NW winds are expected in the Tehuantepec \nregion through tonight, then winds and seas may increase early \nthis week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of\nthe southern coast of Mexico. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail \nacross the region. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will\nmaintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along\nwith mostly moderate seas through the forecast period. Winds and\nseas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El\nSalvador next week as an area of low pressure is forecast to \nform late this weekend or early next week south of the southern \ncoast of Mexico.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast\nwaters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between\nthe ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting\ngentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. \nGentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Rough \nseas associated with Rachel dominate the waters from 09N to 27N \nbetween 105W and 121W. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.3N 114.0W this \nafternoon, 20.4N 115.3W Mon morning, 20.5N 116.8W Mon afternoon, \n20.6N 118.4W Tue morning, 20.6N 120.0W Tue afternoon, and 20.9N \n121.6W Wed morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near \n21.8N 124.6W early Thu. Rough seas generated by Rachel will \ncontinue to propagate across the forecast waters roughly from 10N\nto 27N between 105W and 123W the remainder of the weekend before\nstarting to shift westward along with the system.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215802338735554567", "issued": "2026-10-04T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215802338735554567"}