{"id": "1215799828766785543", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-04T09:00:00Z", "msg": "245\nWTPA42 PHFO 040837\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  55\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Sat Oct 03 2026\n \nNolo's inner-core continues to evolve this evening as its eyewall \nreplacement cycle (ERC) progresses. On geostationary satellite, the \nsmall eye that was observed earlier today has largely decayed, with \nthe coldest cloud tops now organizing in a broader ring as a larger \nragged eye begins to clear out. Earlier, an AMSR3 microwave pass \nover Nolo at 0043 UTC showed an inner eyewall fragment remained on \nthe 37 GHz channel, but a more recent 0549 UTC WSF-M pass showed the \nouter eyewall solidifying with the inner eyewall no longer observed. \nThis evolution suggests the ERC will likely complete in the near \nfuture. For now, the subjective and objective intensity estimates \nhave lowered some during Nolo's inner-core fluctuations, and the \ninitial intensity is set at 95 kt this advisory.\n \nThe hurricane continues to move quickly westward at an estimated \nmotion of 275 degrees at 16 kt. A large subtropical ridge is draped \nto the north of Nolo and should continue to steer the tropical \ncyclone quickly westward for the next 3-4 days. On the forecast \ntrack, Nolo should cross the International Dateline during the day \non Sunday. At the end of the forecast period, Nolo will likely reach \nthe westward edge of the large-scale ridging, and some slowdown in \nits forward motion is anticipated. However, by this point in the \nforecast, Nolo's vertical depth could be more shallow. Substantial \nacross-track uncertainty in the guidance exists, related to if the \ncyclone will begin to recurve northward or continue to maintain a \nslower westward motion. The latest NHC track forecast is very \nsimilar to the prior one, but just a little slower and further \nnorthward in the 96-120 h period, following the trends in the \nreliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), Google DeepMind \nensemble mean (GDMI), and its newer version (WN3I). \n\nAssuming the current ERC completes cleanly over the next 6-12 h, \nNolo is expected to start intensifying again while the tropical \ncyclone remains over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures, and very low \nshear, currently diagnosed at 5 kt by UW-CIMSS. The NHC intensity \nforecast continues to show a 115 kt peak, which is still below the \npeak intensity reached in the raw output in both the 00 UTC HAFS-B \nand HMON runs. After 48 h, a very amplified upper-level flow pattern \ninduced by recurving Typhoon Choi-Wan will lead to an abrupt \nincrease in northeasterly shear over Nolo. This ramp-up in shear \nwill likely advect very dry mid-level air into the cyclone's core. \nThus, the NHC intensity forecast shows significant weakening \noccurring between 48-72 h, when the brunt of the shear will affect \nNolo. By the latter half of the forecast period, this shear could \nlessen somewhat, but it is possible Nolo will continue to struggle \nas it remains embedded in a very dry mid-level air environment. The \nNHC intensity forecast remains on the high side of the guidance over \nthe first 36-48 h, but falls back to the mean of the intensity aids \nthereafter. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/0900Z 23.6N 176.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  04/1800Z 24.0N 179.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  05/0600Z 24.8N 177.6E  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  05/1800Z 25.3N 174.5E  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  06/0600Z 25.4N 171.0E  110 KT 125 MPH\n 60H  06/1800Z 25.5N 166.7E   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  07/0600Z 26.1N 162.5E   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  08/0600Z 28.0N 155.5E   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  09/0600Z 30.0N 152.5E   50 KT  60 MPH\n \n"}