{"id": "1215799232382828551", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-04T09:00:00Z", "msg": "212\nWTPZ43 KNHC 040834\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n200 AM MST Sun Oct 04 2026\n\nSatellite imagery shows that Rachel has continued to get better \norganized since the last advisory. While the eye is not very clear \nat this time, the eyewall cloud tops have become more symmetric with \nsome cloud top temperatures colder than -80C. The various satellite \nintensity estimates are in the 76-104 kt range, and they have all \ntrended upward over the past six hours. Based on this, the initial \nintensity is increased to 85 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is now 295/4 kt. A turn toward the west with \nsome increase in forward speed is expected during the next 72 h as \na mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane strengthens a bit. \nAfter 72 h, a mid-latitude trough approaching from the west will \ncreate a break in the ridge near 130-135W, and Rachel is expected \nto turn west-northwestward again as it approaches the break. The \nnew forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous \ntrack, and it lies close to the center of the fairly well clustered \ntrack guidance.\n\nSea surface temperature analyses indicate that Rachel should be \ncrossing Polo's cold wake right now. The current development trend \nis not consistent with this, though. During the next 24 h, the \nhurricane should move over slightly warmer water that in theory \nshould allow some strengthening. However, none of the intensity \nguidance shows any additional strengthening during this time. Given \nthese mixed signals, the new intensity forecast will show a steady \nintensity for 12 h, followed by a gradual weakening based on the \nintensity guidance trends. Rachel should encounter a drier air \nmass and reach water temperatures of 25-26C starting in about 72 h, \nbut during this time the forecast wind shear becomes quite light. \nThis may allow the cyclone to develop annular characteristics, \nwhich would at least slow any weakening. Overall, the intensity \nforecast is near the upper edge of the guidance.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/0900Z 20.2N 113.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  04/1800Z 20.3N 114.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  05/0600Z 20.4N 115.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  05/1800Z 20.5N 116.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  06/0600Z 20.6N 118.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  06/1800Z 20.6N 120.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  07/0600Z 20.9N 121.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  08/0600Z 21.8N 124.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  09/0600Z 22.7N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n \n"}