{"id": "1215732192039403527", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-04T03:00:00Z", "msg": "440\nWTPA42 PHFO 040253\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  54\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Sat Oct 03 2026\n\nRecent visible satellite imagery indicates that the eye and the \ninner core of Nolo have degraded, most likely due to an ongoing \neyewall replacement cycle. This evolution was seen earlier on \nmicrowave imagery showing an outer moat region within the cyclone. \nUsing a combination of the subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and \nHFO along with the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the \ninitial intensity has been set to 100 kt for this advisory.  \n \nNolo continues to move quickly off towards the west at around 17 kt, \nas the hurricane is being steered by an expanding mid-level ridge to \nits north. Nolo should continue this motion with a forward speed \nbetween 15 and 20 kt for the next several days, and Nolo is expected \nto move across the International Date Line within the next 24 hours. \nThere is a large spread in the later portion of the track forecast \naround days 4 and 5. This track spread seems related to potential \ninteraction with a disturbance (Invest 94W) currently near the \nMarshall Islands and a longwave trough expected to move east of \nJapan. The current NHC track forecast is similar to the previous \none, with some small adjustments made based on the HCCA and GDMI \nforecast aids.\n\nA generally favorable environment with low shear and warm \nsea-surface temperatures near 28 C should allow for some more \nintensification during the next day or so. The key to this forecast \nwill be how soon the current eyewall replacement cycle is completed. \nIf the cycle takes longer to complete, Nolo's intensification could \nbe delayed. After 36 h, the wind shear is forecast to increase, \nwhich could lead to weakening that may also be hastened by \nintrusions of dry air. The current NHC intensity forecast is similar \nto the previous one with some small changes made over the next 36 \nh. \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/0300Z 23.4N 175.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  04/1200Z 23.6N 177.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  05/0000Z 24.4N 179.0E  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  05/1200Z 25.1N 176.0E  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  06/0000Z 25.3N 172.7E  110 KT 125 MPH\n 60H  06/1200Z 25.3N 168.8E  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  07/0000Z 25.6N 164.6E   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  08/0000Z 27.0N 156.5E   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  09/0000Z 28.5N 151.7E   60 KT  70 MPH\n \n"}