{"id": "1215671027714031623", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "msg": "876\nWTPZ43 KNHC 032142 CCA\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  27...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n200 PM MST Sat Oct 03 2026\n\nCorrected paragraph alignment\n\nSatellite imagery suggests that Rachel has formed a larger eye this \nafternoon, with the inner eyewall fading away on the latest infrared \ndata.  Intensity estimates have dropped slightly, and latest \nsubjective Dvorak CI number from TAFB was 4.5/77 kt, but the Final \nT-number was 4.0/65 kt. This aligns well with most UW-CIMSS \nobjective satellite intensity estimates, which range from 63 to 77 \nkt. Based on a compromise of these data, the initial intensity is \nlowered to 70 kt.\n\nThe initial motion continues west-northwestward, or 300/4 kt. \nRachel's slow motion over the next two days will be governed by a \nridge extending southwestward from a mid- to upper-level high over \nthe western United States. Rachel is forecast to accelerate slightly \nafter 60 h, continuing on a west to west-northwestward trajectory \nthrough the remainder of the forecast period. The updated NHC track \nforecast is largely unchanged from the previous advisory and roughly \nfollows the corrected-consensus (HCCA) aid through 120 h. \n\nRachel is anticipated to gradually weaken through the next 24 h due \nto an unfavorable environment of moderate northeasterly vertical \nwind shear, dry mid-level air, and cooler sea surface temperatures \n(SSTs) associated with Hurricane Polo's cold wake. As Rachel moves \nwest of the wake, environmental conditions should allow for some \nre-intensification after the weekend through 72 h. However, beyond \n72 h, Rachel will encounter an even drier air mass, with mid-level \nrelative humidity values dipping below 40 percent. At the same time, \nSSTs will drop below 26 C, likely expediting the weakening trend \nthrough the remainder of the forecast period. The new forecast is \nvery similar to the previous one. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/2100Z 19.8N 112.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  04/0600Z 20.0N 113.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  04/1800Z 20.3N 114.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  05/0600Z 20.5N 115.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  05/1800Z 20.6N 116.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  06/0600Z 20.8N 118.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  06/1800Z 20.9N 120.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  07/1800Z 21.6N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  08/1800Z 22.5N 126.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n \n"}