{"msg": "326\nAXPZ20 KNHC 032119\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sat Oct 3 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 19.8N 112.5W at 03/2100 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure\nis 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to \n85 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to \nisolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of center. \nScattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere \nfrom 18N to 21N between 110W and 115W. Rachel is moving slowly\ntoward the west-northwest, and this slow motion is expected to \ncontinue through tonight. A west to west-northwest motion is \nthen expected Sunday through the middle of next week, with a \ngradual increase in forward speed. Some weakening is forecast \nduring the next day or so, with some slight restrengthening \npossible on Monday. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to \naffect the coast of west-central Mexico through the weekend and \nthe Baja California Peninsula through Monday. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N90W to 13N100W, \nthen resumes W of Hurricane Rachel near 08N116W to 07N130W to \nbeyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection\nis noted from 10N to 16N between 90W and 102W, and from 11N to \n14N between 110W and 120W. Clusters of moderate to strong \nconvection are seen from 00N to 10N W of 130W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, light to gentle\nwinds, and moderate to rough seas in mixed swell, prevail over \nthe offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight \nto moderate seas are in the Gulf of California, with the exception\nof moderate N winds N of 29N and W of 114W. Seas of 8 ft or greater\ngenerated by Rachel are impacting the entrance to the Gulf of \nCalifornia, the offshore waters of Baja California Sur, and the \noffshore waters of southwestern Mexico north of Guerrero.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 20.0N 113.2W Sun\nmorning, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.3N 114.2W Sun \nafternoon, 20.5N 115.4W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane \nnear 20.6N 116.8W Mon afternoon, 20.8N 118.5W Tue morning, and \n20.9N 120.1W Tue afternoon. Rachel will weaken to a tropical \nstorm near 21.6N 123.3W Wed afternoon. Seas generated by Rachel\nwill continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters \nof Baja California, and mainly south of Punta Eugenia, through at\nleast Mon night. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf \nof California, including the entrance to the Gulf through Sun \nnight. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are expected in the \nTehuantepec region through Sun, then winds and seas may increase \nlate this weekend or early next week as an area of low pressure \nis forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail \nacross the region. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will\nmaintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along\nwith mostly moderate seas through the forecast period. Winds and\nseas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El\nSalvador next week as an area of low pressure is forecast to \nform late this weekend or early next week south of the southern \ncoast of Mexico.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast\nwaters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between\nthe ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting\ngentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. A\nband of fresh to strong SW to W winds, with rough seas, remains south\nof Hurricane Rachel, affecting the area from 13N to 15N between 107W\nand 112W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon\ntrough. Rough seas associated with Rachel dominate the waters from\n10N to 27N between 103W and 121W. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 20.0N 113.2W Sun \nmorning, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.3N 114.2W Sun afternoon,\n20.5N 115.4W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 20.6N \n116.8W Mon afternoon, 20.8N 118.5W Tue morning, and 20.9N 120.1W \nTue afternoon. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.6N \n123.3W Wed afternoon. Rough seas generated by Rachel will continue\nto propagate across the forecast waters roughly from 10N to 27N \nbetween 105W and 120W the remainder of the weekend. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215666492317761543", "issued": "2026-10-03T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215666492317761543"}