{"id": "1215661484617859079", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "msg": "587\nWTPZ43 KNHC 032054\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n200 PM MST Sat Oct 03 2026\n\nSatellite imagery suggests that Rachel has formed a larger eye this \nafternoon, with the inner eyewall fading away on the latest \ninfrared data.  Intensity estimates have dropped slightly, and\nlatest subjective Dvorak CI number from TAFB was \n4.5/77 kt, but the Final T-number was 4.0/65 kt. This aligns well \nwith most UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates, which \nrange from 63 to 77 kt. Based on a compromise of these data, the \ninitial intensity is lowered to 70 kt.\n\nThe initial motion continues west-northwestward, or 300/4 kt. \nRachel's slow motion over the next two days will be governed by a \nridge extending southwestward from a mid- to upper-level high over \nthe western United States. Rachel is forecast to accelerate \nslightly after 60 h, continuing on a west to west-northwestward \ntrajectory through the remainder of the forecast period. The \nupdated NHC track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous \nadvisory and roughly follows the corrected-consensus (HCCA) aid \nthrough 120 h. \n\nRachel is anticipated to gradual weaken through the next 24 h due \nto an unfavorable environment of moderate northeasterly vertical \nwind shear, dry mid-level air, and cooler sea surface temperatures \n(SSTs) associated with Hurricane Polo's cold wake. As Rachel \nmoves west of the wake, environmental conditions should allow \nfor some re-intensification after the weekend through 72 h. \nHowever, beyond 72 h, Rachel will encounter an even drier air mass, \nwith mid-level relative humidity values dipping below 40 percent. \nAt the same time, SSTs will drop below 26 C, likely expediting the \nweakening trend through the remainder of the forecast period. The \nnew forecast is very similar to the previous one. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/2100Z 19.8N 112.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  04/0600Z 20.0N 113.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  04/1800Z 20.3N 114.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  05/0600Z 20.5N 115.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  05/1800Z 20.6N 116.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  06/0600Z 20.8N 118.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  06/1800Z 20.9N 120.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  07/1800Z 21.6N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  08/1800Z 22.5N 126.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n \n"}