{"id": "1215658836871118855", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "msg": "259\nWTPA42 PHFO 032040\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  53\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Sat Oct 03 2026\n \nNolo continues to display a compact and nearly symmetric pattern in \nsatellite imagery, and infrared imagery shows that cloud tops \naround the eye have cooled since the last full advisory. Based \non the improved structure, Nolo was upgraded to a 100-kt major \nhurricane on the 8 AM HST intermediate advisory. Since then, HFO and \nJTWC each provided Dvorak estimates of T5.5/102 kt, and the highest \nUW-CIMSS objective numbers are around that same value. The intensity \nof 100 kt is therefore maintained on this advisory.\n\nThe forward speed has continued to increase this morning and is now \nabout 15 kt, with Nolo being steered quickly westward by an \nexpanding mid-level ridge to its north. The hurricane's speed is \nlikely to oscillate between 15 and 20 kt for much of the upcoming 5 \ndays as ridging remains established at varying magnitudes. The \ntrack guidance remains more tightly clustered than usual for the \nfirst 3 days of the forecast, and Nolo is expected to cross the \nInternational Date Line in 24-30 hours. The model spread is a little \nhigher on days 4 and 5. Some models, including the European, HAFS-B, \nGDMI, and HCCA show a continued westward trajectory, while the GFS, \nHAFS-A, HWRF, and COAMPS-TC show a bit of a turn toward the \nnorthwest or north. These scenarios appear to be related to how much \nNolo might interact with a disturbance currently near the Marshall \nIslands (Invest 94W) and a longwave trough expected to move east of \nJapan. For now, the NHC forecast continues to favor the more \nwestward scenario.\n\nLow shear and warm sea surface temperatures around 28 degrees \nCelsius should support further intensification during the next day \nor so, but intensity guidance suggests the period of rapid \nintensification is complete. In fact, recent microwave data show \na moat now surrounding the eyewall, with a secondary eyewall \npotentially forming about 25-30 n mi out from the center. This could \nmean an eyewall replacement is about to occur, which typically leads \nto fluctuations in intensity in the short term. If the eyewall \nreplacement occurs quickly enough, Nolo could reach a higher peak \nintensity in 24-36 hours before shear begins to increase. The \nincreased shear and surrounding dry environment are likely to cause \nsignificant weakening in the 3- to 5-day forecast period, and the \nNHC forecast has been lowered during that time frame compared to the \nprevious advisory.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/2100Z 23.2N 173.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  04/0600Z 23.3N 175.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  04/1800Z 23.8N 179.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  05/0600Z 24.7N 177.6E  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  05/1800Z 25.1N 174.5E  110 KT 125 MPH\n 60H  06/0600Z 25.3N 170.9E  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  06/1800Z 25.6N 166.6E   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  07/1800Z 26.5N 158.5E   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  08/1800Z 27.3N 152.3E   60 KT  70 MPH\n \n"}