{"msg": "965\nAXNT20 KNHC 031626\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Sat Oct 3 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1600 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43.5W, south of 20N, \nmoving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are observed from\n08N to 16N between 40W and 46W. \nA central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 21N, \nmoving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the\nnorthern portion of the wave.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W and continues \nsouthwestward to 10N40W. The ITCZ extends from 11N46W to 11N60W. \nNumerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from \n07N to 18N and between 46W and the Lesser Antilles. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nAn upper-level low spinning over the Bay of Campeche supports \nnumerous showers and thunderstorms over the E Gulf waters, and\nisolated to scattered showers elsewhere. The pressure gradient\nbetween a surface trough along 94W and a high pressure system \nnorth of Bermuda sustain moderate to locally strong SE winds over \nthe Gulf E of 91.5W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate\nseas prevail W of 91.5W.\nFor the forecast, a broad upper-level low over the Bay of \nCampeche will sustain scattered to numerous showers and \nthunderstorms over much of the Gulf through the weekend. A \nmoderate pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the \nwestern Atlantic and a surface trough in the central Gulf will \nsupport moderate to locally strong SE winds over much of the \neastern half of the Gulf into Sun. A weak cold front is expected \nto move across the NW Gulf this weekend, and stall from the \nFlorida panhandle to NW Gulf and to the SW by late Sun. Weak low \npressure may ride up along the front during the weekend and into \nMon enhancing winds some in the NW Gulf and in the north-central \nGulf. The front will remain stationary into midweek. Fresh to \nlocally strong NE winds are expected behind the front beginning \nTue, mainly in the NE and north-central Gulf, as strong high \npressure builds southward behind it. Light to moderate winds and \nmoderate seas are generally expected elsewhere across the basin \nthrough the period.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nScattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found over the NW and\nin the SW Caribbean Sea. Similar activity is noted over and \naround Hispaniola. A broad subtropical ridge north of the area \nsupports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-8 \nft across much of the basin, except for slight to gentle winds and\nslight to moderate seas in the SW Caribbean.\nFor the forecast, a broad upper-level low over the Bay of \nCampeche and abundant deep tropical moisture will support \nscattered shower and thunderstorm activity this morning across the\nfar western Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will force\nfresh to locally strong trade winds over the south-central \nCaribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. As a \nfrontal boundary reaches the waters north of the Bahamas, the \npressure gradient will slacken again from Sun through the middle \nof next week leading to gentle to moderate trade winds across the \nbasin. Fresh trades may pulse off Colombia and in the Gulf of \nVenezuela Mon night. \nOf note, locally heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms are \npossible across Hispaniola this weekend, particularly over Haiti \nand western Hispaniola. A mid-upper level trough will deepen \ntoward Hispaniola and develop a closed circulation near the island\nby Sun. This combined with available moisture and local effects \nas daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting\nwill likely increase the chances of rain in the area. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nThe interaction between a surface trough extending from 31N59W to\nnear Hispaniola and an upper trough over the western Atlantic \npromote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from north of\nHispaniola to 28N between 65W and 71W. High pressure north of \nBermuda supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas across\nmuch of the SW North Atlantic, W of 55W.\nIn the rest of the tropical Atlantic, high pressure centered west\nof France sustains moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and \nmoderate seas between 30W and 55W. E of 30W and north of the\nmonsoon trough, a tighter pressure gradient allows for moderate \nto locally fresh N-NE winds and seas of 6-10 ft.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the combination of a trough \nextending from SE of Bermuda to Hispaniola and a broad upper-level\ntrough digging southward will continue to support scattered \nshowers and thunderstorms through the weekend between Bermuda and \nthe Caribbean. High pressure will support mainly moderate easterly\nwinds and moderate seas through the forecast period S of 30N. \nLooking ahead, a cold front may reach the waters off of NE Florida\nTue morning and stall, followed by strong NE winds and rough seas\nthrough mid week in the offshore waters off NE Florida.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215608844253495303", "issued": "2026-10-03T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215608844253495303"}