{"msg": "796\nAXPZ20 KNHC 031531\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sat Oct 3 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 19.6N 112.1W at 03/1500 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with\ngusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of \ncenter. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is \nelsewhere from 17N to 21N between 110W and 115W. Rachel is moving\nslowly toward the west-northwest, and this slow motion is \nexpected to continue through tonight. A west to west-northwest \nmotion is then expected Sunday through the middle of next week, \nwith a gradual increase in forward speed. Some weakening is forecast \nduring the next day or so, with some slight restrengthening \npossible on Monday. Rachel is forecast to remain a hurricane for \nthe next few days. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to \naffect the coast of west-central Mexico through the weekend and \nthe Baja California Peninsula through Monday. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N90W to 10N105W, then\nresumes W of Rachel near 10N120W to 15N130W to beyond 05N140W. \nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from\n10N to 16N between 94W and 103W, and from 11N to 16N between \n108W and 118W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are seen\nfrom 00N to 09N W of 130W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle to moderate\nwinds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail over the offshore waters\nof Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are\nin the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by \nRachel are impacting the entrance to the Gulf of California, the\noffshore waters of Baja California Sur, and the offshore waters \nof southwestern Mexico north of Guerrero.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.9N 112.8W this \nevening, 20.2N 113.7W Sun morning, 20.3N 114.8W Sun evening, \n20.5N 116.1W Mon morning, 20.7N 117.7W Mon evening, and 20.8N \n119.3W Tue morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near \n21.3N 122.6W early Wed. Seas generated by Rachel will continue \nto propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California,\nand mainly south of Punta Eugenia, through at least Mon. Rough \nseas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, including\nthe entrance to the Gulf through Sun night. Moderate to fresh W \nto NW winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region through Sun, \nthen winds and seas may increase late this weekend into early \nnext week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of\nthe southern coast of Mexico. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nGentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the\nregion. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will\nmaintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along\nwith mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may\nincrease across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador\nearly next week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form \nlate this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast \nof Mexico.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast\nwaters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between\nthe ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting\ngentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. A\nband of fresh to strong SW to W winds, with rough seas, is south\nof Hurricane Rachel, affecting the area from 11N to 15N between 108W\nand 115W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere S of the \nmonsoon trough. Rough seas associated with Rachel dominate the \nwaters from 10N to 26N between 102W and 118W. Moderate seas prevail\nelsewhere. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.9N 112.8W \nthis evening, 20.2N 113.7W Sun morning, 20.3N 114.8W Sun evening,\n20.5N 116.1W Mon morning, 20.7N 117.7W Mon evening, and 20.8N \n119.3W Tue morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near \n21.3N 122.6W early Wed. Rough seas generated by Rachel will cover\nthe waters roughly from 10N to 27N between 101W and 120W during \nthe weekend. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215598017026457607", "issued": "2026-10-03T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215598017026457607"}