{"id": "1215587556087889927", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "msg": "566\nWTPZ43 KNHC 031437\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 AM MST Sat Oct 03 2026\n \nRachel's convective structure has gradually become less impressive \nover past day.  Satellite imagery shows the deep convection nearly \nvoid in the northwest quadrant, which is likely allowing some dry \nair to entrain into the center of Rachel.  The latest subjective \nDvorak current intensity number from TAFB is 4.5/77 kt.  Recent \nobjective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 65-72 kt.  \nThe initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt for this advisory.\n\nRachel is now moving slowly west-northwestward, or 290 degrees at 3 \nkt.  A mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the western United \nStates has a ridge extending southwest out in front of Rachel's \npath.  Rachel is expected to continue moving quite slowly for the \nnext 2 days as the ridge remains in place to Rachel's \nwest-northwest.  Early next week, a mid- to upper-level trough to \nthe west of the ridge will very gradually strengthen and drift \neastward, which will slowly erode the ridge over the 3- to 5-day \ntime period.  This will allow Rachel to gain some forward speed by \nhour 60, with a continued motion between west and west-northwest.  \nThe NHC track forecast is slightly north of the previous track \nthrough 60 h, and slightly south of the previous official track at \ndays 4-5. The NHC forecast is in good agreement with the latest HFIP \nCorrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), and lies slightly to the south \nof the latest Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean through 96 h.  It should \nbe noted that there is a fair amount of north-south (cross-track) \nspread in the guidance, and forecast confidence appears to be near \naverage.\n\nAdditional gradual weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours as \nsea-surface temperatures (SSTs) decrease along Rachel's path while \nthe cyclone moves over the cold water wake left over by Hurricane \nPolo last week.  After Rachel emerges out of Polo's cold wake, some \nslight restrengthening is expected, and this restrengthening is \nshown in the HAFS-A, HAFS-B, and HWRF models.  Beyond hour 72, \nRachel will reach dry mid-level air with relative humidity values \nnear 40 percent.  SSTs will also be decreasing at that time, and \nRachel is expected to cross the 26C degree SST isotherm in about 4 \ndays.  The NHC forecast continues to show weakening in the 3- to \n5-day time frame due to the drier air and cooling SSTs.  The NHC \nintensity forecast is still near the high end of the guidance \nenvelope through the first 4 days and closer to the middle of the \nguidance envelope by day 5.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/1500Z 19.6N 112.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  04/0000Z 19.9N 112.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  04/1200Z 20.2N 113.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  05/0000Z 20.3N 114.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  05/1200Z 20.5N 116.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  06/0000Z 20.7N 117.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  06/1200Z 20.8N 119.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  07/1200Z 21.3N 122.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  08/1200Z 22.3N 125.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n \n"}