{"id": "1215587457731198983", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "msg": "561\nWTPA42 PHFO 031437\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  52\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Sat Oct 03 2026\n\nNolo may be taking a short breather during its intensification\nphase. The hurricane has a fairly symmetric convective pattern,\nwith cloud tops as cold as -68 degrees Celsius in the southern\neyewall and an eye temperature of about 14 degrees Celsius. This\npattern yielded subjective Dvorak estimates of T5.0/90 kt from HFO\nand JTWC, while objective numbers from UW-CIMSS are as high as\n90-95 kt. As a result, Nolo's current intensity is maintained at 95\nkt.\n \nNolo is moving faster as expected, and the current motion is now\nwestward (265 degrees) at 12 kt. Strong ridging to the north is\nexpected to cause Nolo to accelerate further toward the west,\npotentially reaching a forward speed of around 20 kt by day 4. The\ntrack models are very tightly clustered for the next 3 days, and\nconfidence in that part of the forecast is very high. Nolo is\nexpected to be west of the International Date Line by hour 36.\nThere is higher-than-normal spread in the guidance on days 4 and 5,\nmainly related to how Nolo might interact with a disturbance\ncurrently near the Marshall Islands (Invest 94W) and a longwave\ntrough expected to move east of Japan. The NHC forecast favors the\nmodels on the southern end of the guidance envelope, showing a\ncontinued westward track, and is very close to the previous\nprediction.\n \nNolo's intensification is likely to resume soon while it moves over\nsea surface temperatures around 28 degrees Celsius, and deep-layer\nshear becomes almost negligible. A lot of dry air surrounds the\nhurricane, with mid-level relative humidity around 40 percent,\nbut the low shear should minimize how much dry air can\ninfiltrate Nolo's circulation. Nolo is expected to become a major\nhurricane later today and could peak at category 4 intensity in\nabout 36 hours, if not sooner. There is some model signal for a\nfaster rate of intensification during the first 24 hours than what\nis shown in the official forecast, with the SHIPS Rapid\nIntensification Index showing a 40 percent chance of a 20-kt\nincrease in winds over the next 12 hours. The HAFS-A/B hurricane\nmodels are also slightly higher through 36 hours. Internal dynamics,\nsuch as an eyewall replacement, as well as a slight increase in\nshear will likely induce some weakening after 36 hours, but Nolo is\nexpected to remain a hurricane--or a typhoon west of the Date\nLine--through the end of the 5-day forecast period.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/1500Z 23.1N 171.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  04/0000Z 23.2N 173.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  04/1200Z 23.6N 177.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  05/0000Z 24.3N 179.3E  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  05/1200Z 25.1N 176.2E  115 KT 130 MPH\n 60H  06/0000Z 25.3N 172.8E  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  06/1200Z 25.5N 168.8E  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  07/1200Z 26.2N 160.4E   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  08/1200Z 26.9N 153.8E   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}