{"msg": "573\nAXNT20 KNHC 030940\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Sat Oct 3 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0925 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 20N, moving\nwestward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are observed near the wave\naxis mainly S of 13N.\nA central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 20N, \nmoving westward at 115 kt. A few showers are noted near the\nnorthern portion of the wave.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 08N27W. The\nITCZ extends from 08N27W to 08N39W. Scattered to numerous moderate\nto isolated strong convection is evident from 04N to 16N and \nbetween 37W and 57W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nAn upper-level low spinning over the Bay of Campeche supports \nnumerous showers and thunderstorms over the E Gulf waters, and\nisolated to scattered showers elsewhere. The pressure gradient\nbetween a surface trough along 93W and a high pressure system\nnorth of Bermuda sustain moderate to locally strong SE winds over\nthe Gulf E of 93W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate \nseas prevail W of 93W.\nFor the forecast, the aforementioned upper-level low will sustain\nscattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over much of the \nGulf through the weekend. A moderate pressure gradient between the\nsubtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a surface trough \nin the central Gulf will support moderate to locally strong SE \nwinds over much of the eastern half of the Gulf into Sun. A weak \ncold front is expected to move across the NW Gulf this weekend, \nand stall from the Florida panhandle to NW Gulf and to the SW by \nlate Sun. Weak low pressure may ride up along the front during the\nweekend and into Mon enhancing winds some in the NW Gulf and in \nthe north-central Gulf. The front will remain stationary into \nmidweek. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected behind the \nfront beginning Tue, mainly in the NE and north-central Gulf, as \nstrong high pressure builds southward behind it. Light to moderate\nare generally expected across the basin through the period.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nScattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found off Yucatan\nand in the SW Caribbean Sea. Similar activity is noted over and\naround Hispaniola and Cuba. A broad subtropical ridge north of the\narea supports moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds and\nseas of 4-8 ft across much of the basin, except for slight to\ngentle winds and slight to moderate seas in the SW Caribbean.\nFor the forecast, high pressure north of the area will force fresh\nto locally strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and in \nthe Gulf of Honduras through tonight. As a frontal boundary \nreaches the waters north of the Bahamas, the pressure gradient \nwill slacken again from Sun through the middle of next week \nleading to gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Trades may \npulse to fresh speeds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela \nMon night.\nOf note, locally heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms are \npossible across Hispaniola this weekend, particularly over Haiti \nand western Hispaniola. A mid-upper level trough will deepen \ntoward Hispaniola and develop a closed circulation near the island\nby Sun. This combined with available moisture and local effects \nas daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting\nwill likely increase the chances of rain in the area. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nThe interaction between a surface trough extending from 31N52W to\nnear Hispaniola and an upper trough over the western Atlantic\npromote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm\non both sides of the trough axis. High pressure north of Bermuda\nsupports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas across much of\nthe SW North Atlantic, W of 55W.\nIn the rest of the tropical Atlantic, high pressure centered west\nof France sustains moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and \nmoderate seas between 30W and 55W. E of 30W and north of the\nmonsoon trough, a tighter pressure gradient allows for moderate \nto locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-10 ft.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the combination of a trough extending\nfrom SE of Bermuda to Hispaniola and a broad upper-level trough \ndigging southward will continue to support scattered showers and \nthunderstorms through the weekend between Bermuda and the Caribbean.\nHigh pressure will support mainly moderate easterly winds and moderate\nseas through the forecast period S of 30N. Looking ahead, a cold \nfront may reach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning and \nstall. Strong high pressure will nudge southward behind the front \nwith the resultant pressure gradient between it and the front \nlikely to induce strong NE winds, with potential to near gale \nforce, and along with building seas offshore NE Florida.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215529036814254087", "issued": "2026-10-03T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215529036814254087"}