{"msg": "027\nAXPZ20 KNHC 030842\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sat Oct 3 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0830 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 19.4N 111.8W at 03/0900 UTC,\nmoving west at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.\nPeak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is noted within 90 nm of center. Scattered moderate \nand isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 10N to 20N \nbetween 107W and 120W. Rachel is forecast to move slowly west-\nnorthwestward for the next day or two, followed by a more \nwestward motion. A gradual weakening trend is expected. Swells \ngenerated by Rachel will affect the coast of west-central Mexico \nand the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These \nswells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current\nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 17N101W, then resumes \nW of Rachel near 16N116W to 15N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered \nmoderate convection is noted N of 00N and E of 90W, from 10N to \n16N between 90W and 102W, and from 00N to 10N between 130W and \n140W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle to moderate\nwinds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail over the offshore waters\nof Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are\nin the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by \nRachel are impacting the entrance to the Gulf of California, the\noffshore waters of Baja California Sur, and the offshore waters \nof southwestern Mexico west of Guerrero.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 19.4N 111.8W at 2 AM \nPDT, and is moving west at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 \nkt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 969 \nmb. Rachel will move to 19.6N 112.4W this afternoon, 19.9N 113.2W\nSun morning, 20.1N 114.1W Sun afternoon, 20.2N 115.2W Mon \nmorning, 20.4N 116.7W Mon afternoon, and 20.6N 118.4W Tue \nmorning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to \nnear 21.2N 121.7W early Wed. Seas generated by Rachel will \ncontinue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja\nCalifornia, and mainly south of Punta Eugenia, through at least \nMon. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of \nCalifornia, including the entrance to the Gulf through Sun night.\nModerate to fresh W to NW winds are expected in the Tehuantepec \nregion through Sun, then winds and seas may increase late this \nweekend into early next week as an area of low pressure is \nforecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nGentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the\nregion. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will\nmaintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along\nwith mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may\nincrease across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador\nearly next week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form \nlate this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast \nof Mexico.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast\nwaters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between\nthe ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting\ngentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. A\nband of fresh to strong winds, with rough seas, is south of Hurricane\nRachel, affecting the area from 11N to 15N between 109W and 115W.\nGentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon \ntrough. Rough seas associated with Rachel dominate the waters \nfrom 10N to 26N between 101W and 120W. Moderate seas prevail \nelsewhere. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.6N 112.4W \nthis afternoon, 19.9N 113.2W Sun morning, 20.1N 114.1W Sun \nafternoon, 20.2N 115.2W Mon morning, 20.4N 116.7W Mon afternoon, \nand 20.6N 118.4W Tue morning. Rachel will change little in \nintensity as it moves to near 21.2N 121.7W early Wed. Rough seas\ngenerated by Rachel will cover the waters roughly from 08N to \n27N between 101W and 120W during the weekend. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215517678067646471", "issued": "2026-10-03T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215517678067646471"}