{"id": "1215516662475948039", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-03T09:00:00Z", "msg": "969\nWTPA42 PHFO 030837\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  51\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Fri Oct 02 2026\n \nNolo is rapidly intensifying this evening, with cold cloud tops \nassociated with deep convection expanding symmetrically around a \nvery warm eye. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both JTWC \nand HFO came in at T5.0/90 kt, which align with objective estimates. \nGiven these intensity estimates and the continued improvement in the \nsatellite presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 95 kt. \n \nThe initial motion is westward, or 270/9 kt. Guidance remains in\ngood agreement through the forecast period, with very little\ncross-track spread, and shows a generally westward motion continuing\nthrough the weekend. A gradual increase in forward speed is expected\nduring the next 24 h as the ridge builds to the north, with a faster\nwestward motion continuing thereafter. Nolo is forecast to cross the\nInternational Date Line into the western Pacific basin by 48 h. The\nlatest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous \nprediction.\n\nThe significant strengthening anticipated in the previous advisory \nis well underway, with Nolo's intensity having increased by about 20 \nkt during the past 6 h. The persistent westerly to southwesterly \nvertical wind shear that had been impacting Nolo's convective \nstructure has weakened significantly, with the latest UW-CIMSS \nestimate around 5 kt. Weak shear combined with warmer SSTs along \nthe forecast track should support additional strengthening during \nthe next 24-48 h. The primary limiting factor continues to be the \nsurrounding dry mid-level air. Any dry air intrusions during this \nperiod could disrupt the convective organization in the eyewall and \nslow the intensification rate. The latest NHC intensity forecast has \nbeen increased from the previous advisory, showing Nolo becoming a \nmajor hurricane within 12 h and reaching a peak intensity of 120 kt \nin 36-48 h. The forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance \nenvelope, lying close to the HCCA and HAFS-A and -B. A weakening \ntrend is forecast to begin after 48 h as increasing vertical wind \nshear and dry mid-level air begin to gradually affect its structure.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/0900Z 23.3N 169.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  03/1800Z 23.3N 171.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  04/0600Z 23.6N 175.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  04/1800Z 24.2N 178.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  05/0600Z 24.9N 177.9E  120 KT 140 MPH\n 60H  05/1800Z 25.3N 175.0E  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  06/0600Z 25.5N 171.4E  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  07/0600Z 25.9N 162.6E   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  08/0600Z 27.0N 155.1E   80 KT  90 MPH\n \n"}