{"id": "1215516472264654855", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-03T09:00:00Z", "msg": "960\nWTPZ43 KNHC 030836\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n200 AM MST Sat Oct 03 2026\n \nRachel has become less organized during the past several hours. The\nassociated convection is now occurring only over the southern\nsemicircle, and the latest microwave imagery indicates that there\nis no longer any eyewall.  Satellite intensity estimates are in the \n70-90 kt range and are trending downward. Based on the trend, the \ninitial intensity is lowered to 80 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is 275/4 kt. A mid-level anticyclone over the \nwestern United States has a ridge extending southwest to the west \nof Rachel, and this anticyclone is expected to build westward \nduring the next 72 h. This evolution should steer the cyclone \nslowly west-northwestward for the next day or two, followed by a \nmore westward motion. By 96-120 h, a west-northwestward motion is \nlikely to resume as Rachel approaches the western end of the ridge. \nThe new forecast track is close to the previous forecast for 48-60 \nh, and then is nudged a little south based on a southward shift in \nthe guidance envelope.\n\nAdditional slow weakening is forecast during the next 24-36 h as \nRachel continues to experience northeasterly shear and crosses the \ncold water wake of Hurricane Polo. After that, the sea surface \ntemperatures increase slightly at a time where the hurricane is \nlikely to entrain dry air. These competing factors are expected to \nresult in little net change in strength between 36-72 h.  After 72 \nh, Rachel should move over progressively colder water and continue \nto entrain dry air, which should cause a steady weakening.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/0900Z 19.4N 111.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  03/1800Z 19.6N 112.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  04/0600Z 19.9N 113.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  04/1800Z 20.1N 114.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  05/0600Z 20.2N 115.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  05/1800Z 20.4N 116.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  06/0600Z 20.6N 118.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  07/0600Z 21.2N 121.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  08/0600Z 22.2N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n \n"}