{"msg": "192\nAXNT20 KNHC 030423\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sat Oct 3 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0400 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 41W from 05N to 20N, moving westward at \n15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis mainly S of\n12N.\nA tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along \n74W from 07N to 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers\nare noted along the wave axis.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues \nsouthwestward to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends from 09N25W to 08N35W,\nthen resumes from 09N44W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection\nis evident from 05N to 15N between 44W and 54W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nAn upper-level low spinning over the Bay of Campeche supports \nnumerous showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Gulf region.\nConvection is currently flared-up over the Yucatan Peninsula, and\nalso along the coast of Mexico south of Tampico. A surface trough\nis analyzed over the central Gulf and runs from 29N90W to a 1007 \nmb low pres near 19N95W. The pressure gradient between this trough\nand high pressure located over the western Atlantic is allowing \nfor mostly fresh east to southeast winds to exist across the \ncentral and eastern Gulf waters. Light to gentle winds are \noccurring west of the trough axis. Seas are generally moderate, \nexcept in the Bay of Campeche where seas in the 1 to 3 ft range \nare noted.\nFor the forecast, the upper-level low will sustain scattered to \nnumerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the eastern and \ncentral Gulf through the weekend. A moderate pressure gradient \nbetween the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower \npressures in the Gulf will support moderate to locally strong SE \nwinds over much of the eastern half of the Gulf into Sun. A weak \ncold front is expected to move across the NW Gulf this weekend, \nand stall from the Florida panhandle to NW Gulf and to the SW by \nlate Sun. Weak low pressure may ride up along the front during the\nweekend and into Mon enhancing winds some in the NW Gulf and in \nthe north-central Gulf. The front will remain stationary into \nmidweek. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected behind the front \nbeginning Tue, mainly in the NE and north-central Gulf, as strong \nhigh pressure builds southward behind it. Light to moderate are \ngenerally expected across the basin through the period.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAn upper-level low currently over the Bay of Campeche is pulling \nup abundant deep tropical moisture across the far western \nCaribbean and northern Central America where scattered showers \nand thunderstorms are present. Moderate to fresh easterly trade \nwinds across much of the Caribbean Sea with moderate seas. Showers\nand thunderstorms are seen over parts of the Greater Antilles. A \ndiffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective \nactivity. \nFor the forecast, the upper-level low over the Bay of Campeche \nand abundant deep tropical moisture will support scattered shower \nand thunderstorm activity into Sat morning across the far western \nCaribbean. A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda High \nnorth of the Caribbean, and relatively lower pressure in northern \nSouth America will bring fresh to locally strong trades over the \nsouth-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat \nnight. As a frontal boundary reaches the waters north of the \nBahamas, the pressure gradient will slacken again from Sun through\nearly next week leading to gentle to moderate trades across the \nbasin. Trades may pulse to fresh to strong speeds off Colombia and\nin the Gulf of Venezuela Mon night.\nOf note, locally heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms are \npossible across Hispaniola this weekend, particularly over Haiti \nand western Hispaniola. A mid-upper level trough will deepen \ntoward Hispaniola and develop a closed circulation near the island\nby Sun. This combined with available moisture and local effects \nas daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting\nwill likely increase the chances of rain in the area. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nShowers and thunderstorms associated with a trough located \nseveral hundred miles southeast of Bermuda from 28N64W to 20N69W.\nScatterometer data indicate the wind shift associated with trough\naxis, with moderate NE to E winds N of 25N and W of the trough \naxis to 65W. To the E, another trough is analyzed from 31N51W to \n27N61W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the trough.\nThe remainder of the forecast area is under the influence of a \nridge, with high pressure centers just N of the area. Moderate to\nfresh E winds are observed just offshore Hispaniola, and between \neastern Cuba and the Bahamas with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere \nmoderate or weaker winds prevail with moderate seas. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated \nthunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W \nthrough at least Sat. Meanwhile, the combination of a trough SE of\nBermuda and a broad upper-level trough digging southward will \ncontinue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms through \nthe weekend north of about 22N and east of 70W. Trades just north \nof Hispaniola will pulse to fresh to occasionally strong speeds \ntonight and on Sat night. Otherwise, rather tranquil conditions \nare expected through Wed. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach \nthe waters off of NE Florida Tue morning and stall. Strong high \npressure will nudge southward behind the front with the resultant \npressure gradient between it and the front likely to induce strong\nNE winds, with potential to near gale force, and along with \nbuilding seas offshore NE Florida.  \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215466712307695623", "issued": "2026-10-03T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215466712307695623"}