{"msg": "366\nAXPZ20 KNHC 030250\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Sat Oct 3 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0230 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 19.4N 111.5W at 03/0300 UTC,\nmoving west at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 966\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt.\nPeak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is noted within 90 nm of center. Scattered moderate \nand isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 10N to 21N \nbetween 109W and 120W. Rachel is moving slowly toward the west, \nwith the slow westward motion expected to continue. A gradual \nincrease in forward speed and a turn toward the west-northwest \nover the weekend. A gradual weakening trend is expected. Swells \ngenerated by Rachel will affect the coast of west-central Mexico \nand the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These \nswells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current\nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09.5N85W to 16N98W, then resumes\nW of Rachel near 16N116W to 15N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is noted N of 00N and E of 90W, from 10N to\n16N between 90W and 100W, and from 00N to 10N between 125W and\n140W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle to moderate\nwinds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail over the offshore waters\nof Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are\nin the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by \nRachel are impacting the entrance to the Gulf of California, the\noffshore waters of Baja California Sur, and the offshore waters \nof southwestern Mexico west of Guerrero.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 19.4N 111.5W at 8 PM PDT, \nand is moving west at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt \nwith gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 966 mb.\nRachel will move to 19.5N 112.1W Sat morning, 19.8N 112.9W Sat \nevening, 20.1N 113.8W Sun morning, 20.2N 114.8W Sun evening, \n20.4N 116.1W Mon morning, and 20.7N 117.7W Mon evening. Rachel \nwill change little in intensity as it moves to near 21.2N 121.1W \nlate Tue. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate \nacross the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, and \nmainly south of Punta Eugenia, through at least Mon. Rough seas \nwill persist over the southern Gulf of California, including the \nentrance to the Gulf through Sun night. Moderate to fresh W to NW\nwinds are expected in the Tehuantepec region through Sun, then \nwinds and seas may increase late this weekend into early next \nweek as an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the \nsouthern coast of Mexico.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nGentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the\nregion. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will\nmaintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along\nwith mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may\nincrease across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador\nearly next week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form \nlate this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast \nof Mexico.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast\nwaters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between\nthe ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting\ngentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. A\nband of fresh to strong winds, with rough seas, is south of Hurricane\nRachel, affecting the area from 11N to 15N between 107W and 116W\nbased on recent scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate winds prevail\nelsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas associated with Rachel\ndominate the waters from 10N to 26N between 101W and 120W. \nModerate seas prevail elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.5N 112.1W Sat\nmorning, 19.8N 112.9W Sat evening, 20.1N 113.8W Sun morning, \n20.2N 114.8W Sun evening, 20.4N 116.1W Mon morning, and 20.7N \n117.7W Mon evening. Rachel will change little in intensity as it \nmoves to near 21.2N 121.1W late Tue. Seas generated by Rachel \nwill continue to propagate across the forecast waters, covering \nroughly the area from 10N to 25N between 105W and 120W during the\nupcoming weekend. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215448566271475719", "issued": "2026-10-03T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215448566271475719"}