{"id": "1215446571682725895", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "msg": "096\nWTPZ43 KNHC 030240\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 PM MST Fri Oct 02 2026\n\nThe convective structure of Rachel has remained largely unchanged \nsince the previous advisory. Visible satellite imagery continues to \nshow a cloud-filled eye inside a central dense overcast (CDO), with \nmuch of the deeper convection displaced slightly to the west of the \ncenter due to moderate northeasterly wind shear. The latest \nsubjective intensity estimate from TAFB is T4.5/77 kt, while \nobjective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 79 to 94 kt. The \ninitial intensity is lowered slightly to 85 kt for this advisory, \nblending the subjective and objective estimates.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be 280/4 kt, or slowly westward. \nThis slow westward motion is expected to continue, with a gradual \nincrease in forward speed and a turn toward the west-northwest over \nthe weekend as the ridge begins to weaken. While the track guidance \nis in fair agreement with this scenario, there is some guidance \ndisagreement regarding the timing of the forward speed early next \nweek. The updated track forecast closely aligns with the previous \nadvisory through 96 h, then nudges slightly southward thereafter, \nlying near the reliable HCCA consensus model.\n \nRachel is forecast to encounter moderate northeasterly vertical wind \nshear and a moisture-starved environment, which should initiate a \nweakening trend over the next several days. Sea-surface temperatures \n(SSTs) along the hurricane's path will decrease from 29 to 27C over \nthe next 36 to 48 h as Rachel moves through the cold wake of \nHurricane Polo, further expediting this weakening. Beyond that time, \nSSTs should rebound slightly to 28C as the cyclone exits the cold \nwake, though it will be entering an increasingly dry mid-level \nenvironment. These competing factors are expected to result in \nlittle net change in strength during the 48- to 72-hour period, and \nthe NHC intensity forecast continues to flatline Rachel at 70 kt. By \n96 to 120 hours, Rachel is forecast to cross sub-26C waters and \nencounter even drier air, inducing steady weakening back to tropical \nstorm strength by the end of the forecast period.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/0300Z 19.4N 111.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  03/1200Z 19.5N 112.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  04/0000Z 19.8N 112.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  04/1200Z 20.1N 113.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  05/0000Z 20.2N 114.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  05/1200Z 20.4N 116.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  06/0000Z 20.7N 117.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  07/0000Z 21.2N 121.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  08/0000Z 22.1N 124.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n \n"}