{"msg": "483\nAXNT20 KNHC 022318\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Sat Oct 3 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2300 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 39W from 06N to 20N, moving westward at\n15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis. \nA tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along \n73W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave extends from Haiti to\nnorthern Colombia where is helping to induce some convective \nactivity. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues\nsouthwestward to 08N22W and then west-northwestward to 12N35W. \nThe ITCZ extends from 07N40W to near Trinidad and Tobago. Scattered\nmoderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 12N\nbetween 43W and 52W. Similar convective activity is affecting \nTrinidad and Tobago and regional waters. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nAn upper-level low spinning just west of the northern Yucatan \nPeninsula supports scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts\nof the Gulf region. Convection is currently flared-up over the\nYucatan Peninsula, and also along the coast of Mexico south of \nTampico. A surface trough is analyzed over the central Gulf and\nruns from the western Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of \nCampeche. The pressure gradient between this trough and high \npressure located over the western Atlantic is allowing for mostly\nfresh east to southeast winds to exist across the central and \neastern Gulf waters. Light to gentle winds are occurring west of\nthe trough axis. Seas are generally moderate, except in the Bay \nof Campeche where seas in the 1 to 3 ft range are noted.\nFor the forecast, the upper-level low will continue to sustain \nscattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the \neastern and central Gulf through the weekend. A weak cold front \nis expected to move across the NW Gulf this weekend, and stall \nfrom the Florida panhandle to NW Gulf and to the SW by late Sun. \nWeak low pressure may ride up along the front during the weekend \nand into Mon enhancing winds some in the NW and north-central \nGulf. Moderate NE winds are expected elsewhere behind the front.\nThe front will remain stationary into midweek. Fresh to strong \nnortheast winds are expected behind the front beginning Tue, \nmainly in the NE and north-central Gulf, as strong high pressure \nbuilds southward behind it. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAn upper-level low currently west of the northern Yucatan Peninsula\nis pulling up abundant deep tropical moisture across the far western\nCaribbean and northern Central America where scattered to numerous\nshowers and thunderstorms are present. High pressure north of the\narea, combined with the Colombian Low is supporting moderate to \nfresh easterly trade winds across much of the Caribbean Sea with \nmoderate seas. Showers and thunderstorms are seen over parts of \nthe Greater Antilles. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to \ninduce this convective activity. \nFor the forecast, the upper-level low will maintain scattered shower\nand thunderstorm activity quite active over that portion of the basin\ninto Sat morning as the low moves westward. A moderate pressure gradient\nbetween the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean, and relatively lower\npressure in northern South America will bring fresh to locally strong\ntrades over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras\nthrough Sat night. As a frontal boundary reaches the waters north\nof the Bahamas, the pressure gradient will slacken again from Sun\nthrough early next week leading to gentle to moderate trades across\nthe basin. Trades may pulse to fresh to strong speeds off Colombia\nand in the Gulf of Venezuela Mon night.\nOf note, locally heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms are possible\nacross Hispaniola this weekend, particularly over Haiti and \nwestern Hispaniola. A mid-upper level trough will deepen toward \nHispaniola and develop a closed circulation near the island by \nSun. This combined with available moisture and local effects as \ndaytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting \nwill likely increase the chances of rain in the area. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nShowers and thunderstorms associated with a trough (the remnants\nof former Tropical Storm Fay) located several hundred miles southeast\nof Bermuda have become less organized during the past several \nhours. The trough extends from 29N55W to 20N63W. Scatterometer \ndata indicate the wind shift associated with trough axis, with \nmoderate to fresh NE to E winds N of 25N and W of the trough axis\nto 60W. Dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent\nsignificant re-development. Winds and seas could be higher near \nthunderstorms.\nThe remainder of the forecast area is under the influence of a \nridge, with the main high pressure center of 1025 mb located NE \nof the Azores. A 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed over the \nwestern Atlantic near 33N69W. Moderate to locally fresh E winds \nare observed just offshore Hispaniola, and between eastern Cuba \nand the Bahamas with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere moderate or \nweaker winds prevail with moderate seas. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated \nthunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W \nthrough at least Sat. Meanwhile, the combination of the above\nmentioned trough and a broad upper-level trough digging southward\nwill continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms \nthrough the weekend north of about 22N and east of 70W. Trades \njust north of Hispaniola will pulse to fresh to locally strong \nspeeds tonight and on Sat night. Otherwise, rather tranquil \nconditions are expected through Wed. Looking ahead, a cold front \nmay reach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning and stall. \nStrong high pressure will nudge southward behind the front with \nthe resultant pressure gradient between it and the front likely \nto induce strong northeast winds, with potential to near gale \nforce, and along with building seas offshore NE Florida. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215406853362745351", "issued": "2026-10-02T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215406853362745351"}