{"msg": "606\nAXPZ20 KNHC 022126\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 19.3N 111.1W at 02/2100 UTC,\nmoving west at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.\nPeak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is noted within 90 nm of center. Rachel is moving\ntoward the west, and this general motion is expected to continue\nthrough the weekend. A gradual turn toward the west- northwest \nwith an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday.  Some \nweakening is expected over the next day or two. However, Rachel \nis expected to remain a hurricane for the next several days. A \nfew hours ago, the weather station on Socorro Island measured \nsustained winds of 53 kt (97 km/h) with a gust to 74 kt (137 km/h).\nSwells generated by Rachel will affect the coast of west-central\nMexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. \nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 15N96W, then resumes W\nof Rachel near 15N115W to 15N130W to beyond 07N140W. Clusters of\nmoderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 03N to 06N\nE of 83W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated\nstrong convection is seen from 10N to 16N between 86W and 100W, \nfrom 10N to 15N between 110W and 122W, and from 00N to 08N W of \n120W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle to moderate\nwinds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail over the offshore waters\nof Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are\nin the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by \nRachel are reaching the entrance to the Gulf of California, the \noffshore waters of Baja California, south of Punta Eugenia, and \nthe offshore waters of southwestern Mexico north of Michoacan. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.4N 111.6W Sat\nmorning, 19.7N 112.4W Sat afternoon, 20.0N 113.2W Sun morning, \n20.2N 114.2W Sun afternoon, 20.3N 115.4W Mon morning, and 20.5N \n116.8W Mon afternoon. Rachel will change little in intensity as \nit moves to near 21.0N 120.0W Tue afternoon. Seas generated by \nRachel will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast \nwaters of Baja California, and mainly south of Punta Eugenia, \nthrough at least Mon. Rough seas will persist over the southern \nGulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf through \nSun night. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are expected in the \nTehuantepec region through Sun, then winds and seas may increase \nbeginning on Sun night as an area of low pressure is forecast to \nform late this weekend or early next week south of the southern \ncoast of Mexico. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nGentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the\nregion. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will\nmaintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along\nwith mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may\nincrease across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador\nby Mon as an area of low pressure is forecast to form late this \nweekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast\nwaters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between\nthe ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting\ngentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. A\nband of fresh to strong winds, with rough seas, is south of Hurricane\nRachel, affecting the area from 11N to 15N between 107W and 116W\nbased on recent scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate winds prevail\nelsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas associated with Rachel\ndominate the waters from 10N to 26N between 102W and 118W. Moderate\nto locally rough seas prevail elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.4N 111.6W Sat\nmorning, 19.7N 112.4W Sat afternoon, 20.0N 113.2W Sun morning, \n20.2N 114.2W Sun afternoon, 20.3N 115.4W Mon morning, and 20.5N \n116.8W Mon afternoon. Rachel will change little in intensity as \nit moves to near 21.0N 120.0W Tue afternoon. Seas generated by \nRachel will continue to propagate across the forecast waters, \ncovering roughly the area from 10N to 25N between 105W and 120W \nduring the upcoming weekend. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215384795279196167", "issued": "2026-10-02T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215384795279196167"}