{"id": "1215374807911890951", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-02T21:00:00Z", "msg": "460\nWTPA42 PHFO 022035\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  49\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Fri Oct 02 2026\n \nNolo's eye has come and gone in visible and infrared satellite \nimagery since the early morning hours. Based on the current \nstructure, HFO and JTWC have both provided Dvorak Current Intensity \nestimates of 4.0/65 kt, and a UW-CIMSS DMINT estimate based on a \n1805 UTC GMI microwave pass yielded an estimate of 66 kt. Nolo is \ntherefore upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.\n\nNolo's motion is now slowly westward, or 280/5 kt, due to weak \nridging to the north of the hurricane. A mid-level area of high \npressure located west of the International Date Line is expected to \nbuild eastward, re-establishing itself to the north of Nolo and \ncausing the cyclone to accelerate significantly--moving 3 times \nfaster than it is now--by late Saturday. This fast, mostly-westward \nmovement is then expected to continue through the middle of next \nweek, with Nolo crossing the International Date Line between 48-60 \nhours. Model spread is remarkably narrow, which increases forecast \nconfidence in Nolo's track, and the new NHC forecast is very \nsimilar to the previous prediction.\n \nThere is still some moderate deep-layer westerly shear affecting \nNolo, but that shear is expected to decrease during the next 6-12 \nhours and become negligible by this time tomorrow. While the shear \nlessens, Nolo is expected to move over slightly warmer waters, and \nthe environment is forecast to become more divergent aloft. These 3 \nfactors could lead to a period of significant strengthening. \nThe one main negative factor is mid-level moisture around the \nhurricane, which will only be in the 40 percent range. That said, \nDTOPS, one of NHC's rapid intensification (RI) predictors, is now \nshowing a probability of RI over 50 percent during the next 24 \nhours. The new NHC intensity forecast is now explicitly showing the \npossibility of RI, and it is just below the highest guidance, which \ninclude HCCA, the Florida State Superensemble, and HAFS-A and -B. \nModel guidance is unanimous in showing a weakening trend after day \n3, generally in response to an increase in deep-layer northerly \nshear.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/2100Z 23.3N 167.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  03/0600Z 23.3N 169.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  03/1800Z 23.3N 172.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  04/0600Z 23.4N 175.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  04/1800Z 24.0N 178.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 60H  05/0600Z 24.7N 178.0E  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  05/1800Z 25.3N 174.8E  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  06/1800Z 25.7N 167.2E   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  07/1800Z 26.9N 159.1E   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}