{"id": "1215374000621256711", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-02T21:00:00Z", "msg": "385\nWTPZ43 KNHC 022031\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n200 PM MST Fri Oct 02 2026\n\nThe structure of Rachel has not changed appreciably since the \nprevious advisory.  A ragged, cloud-filled eye can still be seen on \nvisible satellite imagery.  The cloud pattern can also be described \nas having a large central dense overcast or embedded center, with \nthe deep convection spanning roughly 200 n mi in diameter.  The \nlatest subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is T4.5/77 kt, and \nthe latest objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from about 77-99 \nkt.  The initial intensity is lowered slightly to 90 kt for this \nadvisory, as a compromise of the subjective and objective estimates.\n\nThe cyclone is still moving slowly westward at 265/4 kt and has made \nits closest approach Socorro Island, passing about 30 to 35 n mi \nnorth of the station, which recorded winds of 53 kt gusting to 74 kt \nand a minimum pressure 982.6 mb.  This data fits in nicely with a \npair of recent ASCAT passes over Rachel from around 1700 UTC.  The \nprevious operational radii didn't need much adjusting since the \nASCAT passes showed very similar radii to what we were carrying.\n\nThis slow westward motion is expected to continue with a gradual \nincrease in forward speed over the weekend and into early next week \nas a mid-level ridge builds to the north.  A gradual bend toward the \nwest-northwest is forecast by Monday as the ridge begins to weaken.  \nThe track guidance remains in fair agreement on this scenario, \nalthough some differences remain in the timing of the increase in \nforward speed by early next week. The latest NHC track forecast is \njust a hair north of the previous prediction and lies near the HCCA \nand TVCN consensus aids.  The NHC forecast is still about 30 miles \nto the left (or south) of the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean, \nespecially from hour 24 to 96.\n\nThe hurricane's structure hasn't changed much in the past 6 hours, \nand the guidance hasn't changed much either on this cycle, so no \nmajor changes are made to the NHC intensity forecast.  Over the next \n36 hours, moderate northeasterly wind shear could affect Rachel \nsome.  Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are forecast to decrease \nalong the hurricane's path during that time from 29 to 27C as Rachel \nencounters the cold wake from Hurricane Polo.  Gradual weakening is \nforecast during this period.  After that time, sea-surface \ntemperatures (SSTs) should increase slightly to 28C along Rachel's \npath as it moves out of Polo's cold wake, but the cyclone will be \nmoving into a drier mid-level environment.  The competing factors \nare expected to lead to little change in strength during the 36- to \n72-hour period, and NHC continues to flatline Rachel at 70 kt during \nthat time.  In 4-5 days, Rachel should cross the 26C SST isotherm \nwhile it reaches an even drier mid-level airmass, and the system is \nforecast to weaken to a tropical storm by the end of the forecast \nperiod.  The NHC intensity forecast lies toward the higher end of \nthe guidance envelope.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/2100Z 19.3N 111.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  03/0600Z 19.4N 111.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  03/1800Z 19.7N 112.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  04/0600Z 20.0N 113.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  04/1800Z 20.2N 114.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  05/0600Z 20.3N 115.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  05/1800Z 20.5N 116.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  06/1800Z 21.0N 120.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  07/1800Z 22.0N 123.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n \n"}