{"msg": "713\nAXNT20 KNHC 021657\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37/38W, south of 19N, \nmoving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is \npresent from 07N to 14N and between 33W and 40W.\nA central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 20N, \nmoving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen\nalong the southern coast of Hispaniola.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N21W and\nthen west-northwestward to 12N34W. The ITCZ extends from 06N40W \nto 10N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is \nevident from 09N to 14N and between 52W and 60W, while more\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the far\neastern portions of the ITCZ.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA broad upper-level low over SE Mexico, combined with abundant \ntropical moisture, promote numerous moderate to strong convection\nover much of the Gulf E of 92W. High pressure over the western \nAtlantic and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico support moderate \nto fresh, locally strong SE winds and moderate seas across much \nof the basin. The strongest winds and highest seas are found north\nof the Yucatan Peninsula.\nFor the forecast, an upper-level low just west of the northern \nYucatan Peninsula moving westward will continue to sustain \nscattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the \neastern and central Gulf through the weekend. The pressure \ngradient between high pressure over the NE Gulf and a couple of \ntroughs over the northern and central Gulf is allowing for mostly \nfresh east to southeast winds to exist across the central and \neastern Gulf waters. A weak cold front is expected to move across \nthe NW Gulf this weekend, and stall from the Florida panhandle to \nNW Gulf and to the SW by late Sun. Weak low pressure may ride up \nalong the front during the weekend and into Mon enhancing winds \nsome in the NW Gulf and north-central Gulf. Winds elsewhere behind\nthe front are expected to mostly moderate northeast winds. Light \nto moderate are generally expected across the basin through the \nperiod.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe broad upper-level low over SE Mexico and abundant moisture  \nfuel scattered moderate convection mainly W of 80W. High pressure\nnorth of the area continues to support moderate to fresh easterly\nwinds and moderate seas across much of the Caribbean Sea, except \nfor light to gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Winds are locally\nstrong offshore Colombia and Venezuela, and also in the Gulf of\nHonduras.\nFor the forecast, an upper-level low currently over southeastern \nMexico with abundant tropical moisture will support scattered \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms west of 80W today. A moderate \npressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean \nand the Colombian Low will force fresh to locally strong trades \nover the S central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sat \nnight. As a frontal boundary reaches the waters north of the \nBahamas, the pressure gradient will slacken again from Sun through\nearly next week leading to only moderate trades across the \nCaribbean. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nDivergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture continues to \nsustain scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 70W. To the E,\na surface trough is analyzed from 33N51W to near 20N65W. \nScattered moderate convection is noted N of 22N between 55W and\n70W. High pressure between Bermuda and Outer Banks forces \nmoderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas south of 28N \nand west of 70W.\nThe remainder of the forecast area is under the influence of a \nbroad ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure system just off\nthe Iberian peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade\nwinds and moderate seas are found south of 22N and west of 30W.\nModerate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring\nnorth of the monsoon trough and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate \nor weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated \nthunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W \nthrough at least Sat. Meanwhile, the combination of a surface \ntrough, remnants of Fay, and a broad upper-level trough digging \nsouthward will continue to support similar shower and thunderstorm\nactivity over the next couple days north of about 22N and east of\n70W. Trades just north of Hispaniola will pulse to fresh to \nlocally strong speeds tonight. Otherwise, rather tranquil \nconditions are expected through Wed. Looking ahead, a cold front \nmay reach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning, followed by \nincreasing winds, possibly to near gale, and building seas. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215331853517848583", "issued": "2026-10-02T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215331853517848583"}