{"msg": "865\nAXPZ20 KNHC 021535\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 19.3N 110.8W at 02/1500 UTC,\nmoving west at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 959\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt.\nPeak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is noted within 90 nm of center. Rachel is moving\ntoward the west, and this general motion is expected to continue\nthrough the weekend. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest \nwith an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday. Additional \nweakening is expected over the next day or two. However, Rachel \nis expected to remain a hurricane for the next several days.\nRachel is passing just north of Socorro Island. The weather station\non this island recently measured sustained winds of 50 kt (92 \nkm/h) with a gust to 68 kt (127 km/h). Swells generated by Rachel\nwill affect the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California\nPeninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause \nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 15N95W, then resumes W\nof Rachel near 16N115W to 14N130W to beyond 09N140W. Clusters of\nmoderate to strong convection are noted from 01N to 06N E of 82W\nto the coast of Colombia. Numerous moderate to isolated strong\nconvection are observed from 11N to 15.5N between 86W and 100W,\nfrom 10N to 13N between 110W and 120W, and from 00N to 08N W of\n123W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, moderate to\nfresh winds, and rough seas, prevail over the open waters off\nMexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas,\nare over the Gulf of California.  \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.3N 111.4W \nthis evening, 19.6N 112.1W Sat morning, 19.8N 112.9W Sat evening,\n20.0N 113.9W Sun morning, 20.2N 115.0W Sun evening, and 20.3N \n116.3W Mon morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it \nmoves to near 20.8N 119.5W early Tue. Seas generated by Rachel \nwill continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of\nBaja California, south of Punta Eugenia, on Sat. Rough seas will\npersist over the southern Gulf of California, including the \nentrance to the Gulf. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are \nexpected in the Tehuantepec region through Sat night, then winds\nand seas may increase beginning on Sun as an area of low pressure\ncould develop late this weekend or early next week south of the \nsouthern coast of Mexico. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nGentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the\nregion. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will\nmaintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along\nwith mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may\nincrease across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador\nby Mon as an area of low pressure could develop late this weekend\nor early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of Hurricane Rachel, the pressure gradient between high\npressure north of the area and lower pressure within the monsoon\ntrough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon \ntrough and W of 115W. Fresh to strong winds are south of \nHurricane Rachel, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere from 10N\nto 16N between 90W and 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail \nelsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas cover the waters N \nof 05N between 90W and 120W. Moderate to locally rough winds \nprevail elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, Rachel will move to 19.5N 111.1W this \nafternoon, 19.5N 111.9W Sat morning, 19.7N 112.7W Sat afternoon, \n19.8N 113.6W Sun morning, 19.9N 114.5W Sun afternoon, and 20.1N \n115.8W Mon morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it \nmoves to near 20.6N 118.5W early Tue. Seas generated by Rachel \nwill propagate across the forecast waters, covering roughly the \narea from 10N to 25N between 100W and 120W over the next couple \nof days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215315904539262983", "issued": "2026-10-02T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215315904539262983"}