{"id": "1215307144162639879", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-02T15:00:00Z", "msg": "854\nWTPZ43 KNHC 021451\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 AM MST Fri Oct 02 2026\n \nRachel's inner core looks slightly less impressive on satellite \nimagery than it did 6 to 12 hours ago. The eyewall is not very tight \nand compact, with areas of dry air intrusion possibly affecting the \neyewall.  The latest TAFB current intensity estimate is 5.5/102 kt, \nbut the final-T number is 4.5/77 kt.  Objective intensity estimates \nfrom UW-CIMSS have been ranging from 80-95 kt.  The initial \nintensity is lowered to 95 kt, which is 5 kt lower than the previous \nNHC advisory.\n \nThe cyclone is still moving slowly westward at 265/5 kt and will be \nmaking its closest approach to Socorro Island today.  This motion is \nexpected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed over \nthe weekend and into early next week as a mid-level ridge builds to \nthe north.  A gradual bend toward the west-northwest is forecast by \nMonday as the ridge begins to weaken.  The track guidance remains in \nfair agreement on this scenario, although some differences remain in \nthe timing of the increase in forward speed by early next week. The \nlatest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous prediction and \nlies near the HCCA aid.  The NHC forecast is a bit to the south of \nthe latest Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean.\n\nModerate east-northeasterly vertical wind shear might be helping \nsome dry mid-level air to entrain into Rachel's core, which seems to \nbe causing the eyewall to become a bit more spread out and diffuse \ncompared to 12 hours ago.  These conditions are not forecast to \nabate during the next 24 hours.  All the guidance shows weakening \nduring the next 24 hours, and so does the official forecast, which \nis about 15 kt lower than the previous NHC prediction at hour 12 and \n24.  This forecast remains near the high end of the guidance.  \nBeyond hour 24 the shear should relax somewhat, which should allow \nRachel to maintain hurricane intensity for the next 4 days or so.  \nThe latest forecast flatlines the intensity at 70 kt from hour 36 to \nday 4, which is also near the high end of the guidance, but lower \nthan the previous NHC forecast. It should be noted that the HAFS \nmodels, HWRF and HMON show Rachel weakening to a tropical storm \nwithin the next 24 hours, and then staying at tropical storm \nstrength through the period.  After day 4, Rachel will move across \nthe 26C sea-surface temperature isotherm toward cooler water while \nalso reaching a progressively drier mid-level airmass.  These \nconditions should cause Rachel to weaken to a tropical storm by the \nend of the forecast period.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/1500Z 19.3N 110.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  03/0000Z 19.3N 111.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  03/1200Z 19.6N 112.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  04/0000Z 19.8N 112.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  04/1200Z 20.0N 113.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  05/0000Z 20.2N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  05/1200Z 20.3N 116.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  06/1200Z 20.8N 119.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  07/1200Z 21.7N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n \n"}