{"id": "1215306357519024135", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-02T15:00:00Z", "msg": "819\nWTPA42 PHFO 021447\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  48\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Fri Oct 02 2026\n \nNolo's convective structure continues to improve, with an eye \nbecoming apparent in GOES-West infrared and proxy visible images \nduring the past couple of hours. However, SHIPS and UW-CIMSS \nanalyses suggest that moderate west-southwesterly shear is still \naffecting the storm, which seems realistic given the limited \nupper-level outflow and some disruption of the convection in \nthe southern semicircle. Both subjective and objective estimates are \nstill catching up to the improved satellite presentation, with HFO \nand UW-CIMSS DPRINT being the highest at about 55 kt, so the initial \nintensity is set just above that at 60 kt.\n\nNolo continues to move slowly west-northwestward, or 285/5 kt, \nlocated to the south of a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A \nmid-level area of high pressure located west of the International \nDate Line is expected to build eastward, repositioning itself to \nthe north of Nolo and causing the cyclone to turn westward and \naccelerate significantly during the next few days. There is very \nlittle spread among the track guidance, suggesting high confidence \nin this forecast, and the new NHC track prediction has been nudged \nonly slightly south of the previous forecast toward the HCCA and \nGDMI guidance. Nolo is forecast to cross the International Date \nLine by hour 60.\n\nThe shear is expected to abate during the next 12-24 hours, which \nshould minimize the adverse effects of dry air in the surrounding \nenvironment. The NHC intensity forecast leans toward the higher end \nof the guidance, closest to the HCCA and HAFS-A/B model scenarios, \nmaking Nolo a major hurricane in about 2 days and potentially \npeaking in intensity around day 3. Weakening is expected after that \ntime, largely due to a significant increase in deep-layer shear.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/1500Z 23.2N 167.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  03/0000Z 23.3N 168.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  03/1200Z 23.3N 170.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  04/0000Z 23.3N 174.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  04/1200Z 23.7N 177.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 60H  05/0000Z 24.5N 179.3E  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  05/1200Z 25.2N 176.0E  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  06/1200Z 25.8N 168.9E  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  07/1200Z 26.8N 161.0E   80 KT  90 MPH\n \n"}