{"msg": "080\nAXNT20 KNHC 020937\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0925 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south of 19N,\nmoving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is\npresent from 07N to 15N and between 32W and 42W.\nA central Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W, south of 20N,\nmoving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted \nnear this wave.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania near 17N17W and continues southwestward to 11N31W. The\nITCZ extends from 06N40W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. \nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from \n08N to 17N and between 43W and 57W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA broad upper-level low over SE Mexico, combined with abundant \ntropical moisture, promote scattered showers and thunderstorms \nover the E Gulf. High pressure over the western Atlantic and lower\npressures in Texas and Mexico support moderate to locally strong\nSE winds and moderate seas across much of the basin. The strongest\nwinds and highest seas are found north of the Yucatan peninsula.\nFor the forecast, the aforementioned upper-level low and abundant\nmoisture will promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms\nover the eastern and northern Gulf through this weekend. High \npressure supports moderate to locally strong SE winds over much of\nthe basin. However, a weak front moving across Texas will weaken \nthe pressure gradient, allowing the winds across the Gulf today \ninto the weekend. Late this weekend, the front will reach the NW \nGulf, extending from the Florida panhandle to just offshore the \nTexas- Mexico border to near Veracruz on Mon morning. Winds behind\nthe front should only be N to NE moderate to fresh and moderate seas.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe broad upper-level low over SE Mexico and abundant moisture  \nfuel scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly W of 80W.\nHigh pressure north of the area continue to support moderate to\nlocally strong easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the\nCaribbean Sea, except for light to gentle winds in the SW\nCaribbean. \nFor the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda\nHigh north of the Caribbean and the Colombian Low will force fresh\nto locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean and the Gulf\nof Honduras through Sat night. As a frontal boundary reaches the \nwaters north of the Bahamas, the pressure gradient will slacken \nagain from Sun through early next week leading to only moderate \ntrades across the Caribbean.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nDivergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture continues to \nsustain scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 70W. To the E,\na surface trough is analyzed from 29N55W to the northern Leeward\nIslands. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the \nnorthern half of the trough. High pressure between Bermuda and\nOuter Banks forces moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate\nseas south of 28N and west of 70W.\nThe remainder of the forecast area is under the influence of a \nbroad ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure system just off\nthe Iberian peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade\nwinds and moderate seas are found south of 22N and west of 30W.\nModerate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring\nnorth of the monsoon trough and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate \nor weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated\nthunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W \nthrough at least Sat. Meanwhile, a surface trough - associated \nwith the remnants of Fay - will support similar shower and \nthunderstorm activity over the next couple days north of 22N and \neast of 70W. Trades just north of Hispaniola will boost to fresh \nto locally strong this morning and tonight. Otherwise, winds and \nseas will be quiescent through Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front \nmay reach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning with increasing\nwinds and building seas behind the boundary. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215245344136560647", "issued": "2026-10-02T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215245344136560647"}