{"id": "1215233307390443527", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-02T09:00:00Z", "msg": "390\nWTPZ43 KNHC 020836\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n200 AM MST Fri Oct 02 2026\n \nRachel's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat over the past \nseveral hours, with the eye becoming obscured in conventional \nsatellite imagery and some mid-level dry air entraining into the \nnortheastern portion of the circulation. However, recent microwave \nimagery indicates that the inner-core structure remains intact. A \n0429 UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass helped refine the wind radii and \nstructure. The latest Dvorak Data-T estimate from TAFB decreased to \n4.5/77 kt, with objective intensity estimates ranging from 87 to 104 \nkt. Given these estimates and the degraded satellite presentation, \nthe initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is westward, or 270/4 kt, and this motion is \nexpected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed over \nthe weekend and into early next week as a mid-level ridge builds to \nthe north. A gradual bend toward the west-northwest is forecast \nbetween 72 and 96 h as the ridge begins to weaken. The track \nguidance remains in decent agreement on this scenario, although some \ndifferences remain in the timing of the increase in forward speed \nby early next week. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the \nprevious prediction and lies near the HCCA and GDMI aids.\n \nAlthough modest east-northeasterly shear and some dry mid-level air \nare currently influencing the convective structure, environmental \nconditions largely remain favorable for Rachel to remain near its \ncurrent intensity during the next 12 h, especially while the \ninner-core structure remains intact. Thereafter, increasingly dry \nmid-level air is forecast to begin wrapping into the system, while \nsome east-northeasterly shear could persist. These factors should \ngradually disrupt the inner-core structure and induce a weakening \ntrend. Increasingly marginal sea surface temperatures later in the \nforecast period should support continued weakening through day 5. \nThe latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the \nprevious advisory, showing Rachel holding steady over the next 12 h \nand then gradually weakening thereafter. This intensity forecast \nremains near the upper end of the guidance envelope through the \nforecast period.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/0900Z 19.4N 110.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  02/1800Z 19.5N 111.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  03/0600Z 19.5N 111.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  03/1800Z 19.7N 112.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  04/0600Z 19.8N 113.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 60H  04/1800Z 19.9N 114.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  05/0600Z 20.1N 115.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  06/0600Z 20.6N 118.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  07/0600Z 21.6N 122.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}