{"id": "1215232920607424519", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-02T09:00:00Z", "msg": "359\nWTPA42 PHFO 020834\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  47\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Thu Oct 01 2026\n \nNolo is experiencing yet another burst of deep convection within its \nnorthwest quadrant. While the southern semicircle remains relatively \nfree of activity, convection is starting to become more persistent \nabout the center of circulation. The latest subjective Dvorak \nintensity estimates from JTWC and HFO both rated Nolo at 3.5/55 kt, \nwhile objective estimates from UW-CIMSS continue to exhibit a wide \nrange of intensity estimates, from 35 to 57 kt. Based on these \nintensity estimates and the improved satellite presentation, Nolo's \ninitial intensity was held at 55 kt. \n\nThe initial motion is set at 290/5 kt. While Nolo's motion has \nslowed once again, the anticipated turn to the west is becoming \nincreasingly evident on satellite. High pressure located downstream \nof the system is expected to shift north of Nolo, allowing it to \nmaintain a westward motion while gaining forward speed. Track \nguidance seems to have better shifted to this more consistent, \ndue-west motion, so the latest NHC track forecast reflects this. \nOverall, the track forecast has shifted to the left a bit from the \nprevious advisory, nudging towards HCCA and GDMI guidance.\n\nSHIPS guidance consistently depicts Nola entering an environment \nfavorable for steady intensification. While mid-level moisture \nlooks to remain steady, vertical wind shear will markedly decrease \nand SSTs will warm along Nolo's path. As a result, Nolo is expected \nto become a hurricane once again over the weekend, and potentially \na major hurricane as it approaches the International Dateline. The \nlatest NHC intensity forecast generally falls in line with the \nguidance median, with the main changes being to increase the rate \nof intensification over the next couple of days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/0900Z 23.3N 166.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  02/1800Z 23.4N 167.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  03/0600Z 23.5N 169.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  03/1800Z 23.5N 172.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  04/0600Z 23.7N 175.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 60H  04/1800Z 24.3N 179.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  05/0600Z 25.1N 177.8E  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  06/0600Z 26.2N 171.2E  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  07/0600Z 27.1N 163.2E   95 KT 110 MPH\n \n"}