{"msg": "662\nAXNT20 KNHC 020440\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0400 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 35W from 06N to 20N, moving westward at \nabout 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis. \nA tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along\n68W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is helping to \ninduce some convective activity mainly N of 16N.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues \nwestward to 08N29W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 06N38W to 02N50W. \nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N\nto 11N between 10W and 20W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nAn upper-level low currently over the Yucatan Peninsula, combined\nwith abundant tropical moisture, is promoting scattered showers \nand thunderstorms over the E Gulf. Fresh to strong winds are noted\nwith this convection. Another area of convection has flared-up \nover the Yucatan Peninsula where a surface trough is noted. A \nfrontal boundary is approaching the NW Gulf waters, with scattered\nmoderate convection noted ahead of it along the coasts of Texas \nand NW Mexico. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the Gulf waters \nsupporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, the upper-level low will continue to induce \nscattered showers and thunderstorms over the E Gulf tonight, \nspreading to the N Gulf on Fri and Sat. A tightening pressure \ngradient will increase SE winds up to fresh to locally strong over\nthe E and central Gulf through Fri. A weak cold moving across \nTexas will weaken the pressure gradient, allowing the winds across\nthe Gulf to diminish Fri into the weekend. On Sun, the front will\nreach the NW Gulf, extending from Alabama to just offshore the \nTexas-Mexico border to near Veracruz on Mon morning. Winds behind \nthe front should only be N to NE moderate to locally fresh.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAn upper level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is drawing abundant\nmoisture from the eastern Pacific into the western Caribbean, \nwhich continues to fuel scattered showers and isolated \nthunderstorms mainly W of 80W. This convective activity is more \nconcentrated over western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. High \npressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low is \nsupporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of \nthe Caribbean Sea with moderate seas. \nFor the forecast, the upper-level low will support scattered \nshowers and thunderstorms west of 80W through Fri. A moderate \npressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean \nand the Colombian Low will force fresh to locally strong trades \nover the S central Caribbean and over the Gulf of Honduras through\nSat night. As a frontal boundary reaches the waters north of the \nBahamas, the pressure gradient will slacken again from Sun through\nearly next week leading to only moderate trades across the \nCaribbean.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nDivergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture continues to \nsustain scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 70W. \nTo the E, a surface trough is analyzed from 27N57W to 20N63W. \nScattered moderate convection is noted along the northern half of \nthe trough. A 1017 mb low is centered near 24N34W with no \nsignificant convection. The remainder of the forecast area is \nunder the influence of a ridge, with the main high pressure center\nof 1028 mb located NE of the Azores. A 1021 mb high pressure is \nanalyzed over the western Atlantic near 28N51W. Moderate to fresh \nE to SE winds are noted between the Bahamas and Cuba. Moderate to \nfresh NE winds are ahead of the tropical wave located near 35W. \nElsewhere moderate or weaker winds prevail with moderate seas. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated \nthunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W \nthrough at least Sat. Meanwhile, a surface trough - associated \nwith the remnants of Fay - will support similar shower and \nthunderstorm activity over the next couple days north of 22N and \neast of 65W. Trades just north of Hispaniola will boost to fresh \nto locally strong tonight and Fri night. Otherwise, winds and seas\nwill be quiescent through Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front may \nreach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning with increasing \nwinds and building seas behind the boundary. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215186903073357831", "issued": "2026-10-02T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215186903073357831"}