{"msg": "036\nAXPZ20 KNHC 020241\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0230 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 19.5N 109.9W at 02/0300 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with \ngusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of center. \nScattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere \nfrom 10N to 20N between 105W and 120W. Rachel is moving slowly \ntoward the west northwest, and this motion is expected during the\nnext day or so. Thereafter, a more westward track is expected with\nthe forward speed gradually increasing through the remainder of \nthe forecast period. Rachel is forecast to intensify for the next\n12 hours or so before starting a weakening trend. Swells \ngenerated by Rachel will affect the coast of west- central Mexico\nand the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. \nThese swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 16N95W, then resumes \nnear 16N113W to 14N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to\nisolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 16N E of 103W, \nand from 00N to 10N W of 120W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, moderate to\nfresh winds, and rough seas, prevail over the open waters off\nMexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas,\nare over the Gulf of California.  \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 19.5N 109.9W at 8 PM PDT, \nand is moving west-northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are\n105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is\n950 mb. Rachel will move to 19.5N 110.4W Fri morning, 19.5N \n111.2W Fri evening, 19.6N 112.1W Sat morning, 19.8N 113.1W Sat \nevening, 19.9N 114.0W Sun morning, and 20.0N 115.0W Sun evening. \nRachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.2N \n117.8W late Mon. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to \npropagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California,\nsouth of Punta Eugenia, on Sat. Rough seas will persist over the\nsouthern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf.\nWinds and seas south of the Tehuantepec region will diminish \nearly on Fri.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nGentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the\nregion. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will\nmaintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along\nwith mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may\nincrease across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador\nby Mon as an area of low pressure could develop late this\nweekend or early next week south of the southern coast of\nMexico. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel and the remnants of Nineteen-E.\nOutside of Hurricane Rachel, the pressure gradient between high\npressure north of the area and lower pressure within the monsoon\ntrough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon \ntrough and W of 115W. Fresh to strong winds are south of \nHurricane Rachel, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere from 10N\nto 16N between 90W and 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail \nelsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas cover the waters N \nof 05N between 90W and 120W. Moderate to locally rough winds \nprevail elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.5N 110.4W Fri\nmorning, 19.5N 111.2W Fri evening, 19.6N 112.1W Sat morning, \n19.8N 113.1W Sat evening, 19.9N 114.0W Sun morning, and 20.0N \n115.0W Sun evening. Rachel will change little in intensity as it \nmoves to near 20.2N 117.8W late Mon. The area of fresh to strong \nwesterly winds S of Rachel will persist over the next 48 hours. \nSeas generated by Rachel will propagate across the forecast \nwaters, covering roughly the area from 10N to 25N between 100W \nand 120W over the next couple of days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215163511324180487", "issued": "2026-10-02T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215163511324180487"}