{"id": "1215162824450932743", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-02T03:00:00Z", "msg": "998\nWTPA42 PHFO 020237\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  46\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Thu Oct 01 2026\n\nNolo continues to gradually become better organized. While \nthe storm's structure is still lacking across the southern \nsemicircle with drier air prevailing, deep convection is \nre-igniting close to the center of circulation, displaced slightly \nto the northwest. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates \nfrom JTWC and HFO rated Nolo at 45 and 55 kt, respectively, while \nUW-CIMSS objective estimates show a wide spread of 29 to 50 kt. \nWith ASCAT data from around 2100 UTC showing max winds around 46 \nkt, and no significant changes occuring with Nolo's structure, the \ninitial intensity was held steady at 50 kt. \n\nThe initial motion was set at 310/10 kt. Nolo has nearly doubled in \nspeed over the last six hours. This is likely due high pressure \ndownstream of the system moving to Nolo's north, allowing the \ncyclone to be picked up by stronger, subtropical steering flow. \nTrack guidance exhibits a fair amount of agreement on Nolo shifting \ncloser to due west over the next 24 to 48 hours, before turning back \nto the west-northwest over the weekend while gaining forward speed. \nLittle was changed with the latest NHC track forecast compared to \nthe previous forecast. \n\nNolo is expected to enter a favorable environment defined by \nwarming SSTs and decreasing vertical wind shear. This will allow \nfor gradual restrengthening through much of the forecast period, \nand Nolo may become a major hurricane as it approaches the \nInternational Dateline. The latest NHC intensity forecast does \nadjust Nolo's rate of strengthening heading into the weekend down \nslightly, mostly as an effort to keep it more in line with the \nguidance median, however Nolo's peak strength was raised slightly \nto bring it more into agreement with HCCA guidance.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/0300Z 23.2N 166.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  02/1200Z 23.4N 166.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  03/0000Z 23.5N 168.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  03/1200Z 23.5N 170.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  04/0000Z 23.6N 173.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 60H  04/1200Z 24.1N 177.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  05/0000Z 24.8N 179.6E  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  06/0000Z 26.3N 173.1E  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  07/0000Z 27.3N 165.5E   95 KT 110 MPH\n \n"}