{"msg": "764\nAXNT20 KNHC 012309\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Thu Oct 1 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2300 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 32W from 06N to 20N, moving westward at\nabout 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis. \nA tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along\n67W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is helping to\ninduce some convective activity over Puerto Rico. Moderate to\nlocally fresh SE winds are on the E side of the wave axis.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nSenegal near 14N17W and continues westward to 11N36W. The ITCZ \nis analyzed from 08N45W to northern Guyana. Scattered moderate to\nisolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 10W\nand 20W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nAbundant tropical moisture, combined with a diffluent pattern aloft,\ncontinues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the\neastern Gulf, more concentrated over the SE part of the basin, \nincluding the Yucatan Channel. Convection is also flared-up over\nthe Yucatan Peninsula where a surface trough is noted. Otherwise,\na ridge dominates the Gulf waters supporting moderate to locally\nfresh E to SE winds and moderate seas. \nFor the forecast, an upper-level low will promote scattered showers\nand isolated thunderstorms over the SE Gulf tonight, spreading \nto the N Gulf on Fri and Sat. A tightening pressure gradient will\nincrease SE winds up to fresh to locally strong over the E and \ncentral Gulf tonight and Fri. A weak cold moving across Texas \nwill weaken the pressure gradient, allowing the winds across the \nGulf to diminish on Sat and Sun. On Sun, the front will reach the\nNW Gulf, extending from Alabama to just offshore the Texas-Mexico\nborder to near Veracruz on Mon morning. Winds behind the front \nshould only be N to NE moderate to locally fresh.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA middle to upper level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is drawing\nabundant moisture from the eastern Pacific into the western Caribbean,\nwhich continues to fuel scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms\nmainly W of 80W. This convective activity is more concentrated over\nwestern Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. High pressure north of the\narea combined with the Colombian Low is supporting moderate to fresh\neasterly trade winds across much of the Caribbean Sea with moderate\nseas. \nFor the forecast, an upper-level low currently over Central America\nwith abundant tropical moisture will support scattered showers \nand isolated thunderstorms west of 80W through Fri. A moderate \npressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean\nand the Colombian Low will force fresh to locally strong trades \nover the S central Caribbean and over the Gulf of Honduras through\nSat night. As a frontal boundary reaches the waters north of the\nBahamas, the pressure gradient will slacken again from Sun \nthrough early next week leading to only moderate trades across \nthe Caribbean. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nDivergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture continues to \nsustain scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms west of \n70W. Meanwhile, a low pressure area associated with the remnants\nof former Tropical Storm Fay is located several hundred miles \nsoutheast of Bermuda. This system is producing scattered to\nnumerous showers and thunderstorms covering the waters from 22N\nto 29N between 55W and 65W. While this convective activity has \nincreased since yesterday, dry air and strong upper-level winds \nare expected to prevent significant re-development. Mainly moderate\nto fresh winds and moderate seas are noted in association with \nthis system. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms.\nA stationary front is reaching the Canary Islands. Moderate to\nfresh winds and moderate to rough seas are near the front. The \nremainder of the forecast area is under the influence of a ridge,\nwith the main high pressure center of 1029 mb located NE of the \nAzores. A 1022 mb high pressure is analyzed over the western \nAtlantic near 35N70W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are \nobserved between the Bahamas and Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh \nNE winds are ahead of the tropical wave located near 32W. \nElsewhere moderate or weaker winds prevail with moderate seas. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated \nthunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W \nthrough at least Sat. Meanwhile, a surface trough- associated \nwith the remnants of Fay - will support similar shower and \nthunderstorm activity over the next couple days north of 22N and \neast of 65W. Trades just north of Hispaniola will boost to fresh \nto locally strong tonight and Fri night. Otherwise, winds and \nseas will be quiescent through Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front \nmay reach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning with increasing\nwinds and building seas behind the boundary. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215121960301101063", "issued": "2026-10-01T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215121960301101063"}