{"msg": "429\nAXPZ20 KNHC 012137\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Thu Oct 1 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 19.4N 109.5W at 01/2100 UTC,\nmoving west at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. \nMaximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak\nseas are 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to strong convection is\nnoted within 120 nm of center. Rachel is moving slowly toward \nthe west, and this slow west to west-northwest motion is expected\nthe next couple of days. Rachel is a category 3 hurricane on the\nSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is\nforecast the next day or so, before some gradual weakening this \nweekend. Swells generated by Rachel will affect the coast of \nwest-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the\nend of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening\nsurf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from \nyour local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nRemnants of Nineteen-E is centered near 15.0N 123.0W at 01/2100 \nUTC, moving east at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 \nkt. Peak seas are 10 ft. The remnants are moving toward the east\nand this motion is expected to continue for another day or so.\nThe last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on\nthis system at 2100 UTC.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nNineteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is near 90W N of 03N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. \nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to \n10N between 80W and 95W. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 15N97W, then resumes W\nof the remnants of T.D. Nineteen-E near 12N130W to beyond 05N140W.\nIn addition to the convection associated with Hurricane Rachel \nand the remnants of T.D. Nineteen-E, scattered moderate to isolated\nstrong convection can be found from 10N to 14N between 110W and \n120W, and from 00N to 10N W of 120W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel.\nA Hurricane Warning is in effect for the offshore forecast waters\nfrom Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas, and also from 17N to 20N\nbetween 110W and 115W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. Tropical\nStorm conditions are expected near the entrance to the Gulf of \nCalifornia tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to strong southerly winds \nand rough seas associated with the outer periphery of Rachel are\nimpacting the coastal waters of Jalisco, including the Cabo \nCorrientes area. Large swell generated by Rachel are reaching the\nentrance to the Gulf of California, as well as the waters between\nCabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to fresh winds and \nrough seas are observed in the Tehuantepec region, particularly \nfrom 14N to 15N between 94W and 97W. Gentle to moderate NW to N \nwinds are noted across the remainder of the offshore waters of \nBaja California while light to gentle winds dominate the Gulf of \ncalifornia.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move will move to 19.5N \n110.0W Fri morning, 19.5N 110.7W Fri afternoon, 19.6N 111.5W Sat\nmorning, 19.8N 112.5W Sat afternoon, 20.0N 113.5W Sun morning, \nand 20.1N 114.6W Sun afternoon. Rachel will change little in \nintensity as it moves to near 20.2N 117.3W Mon afternoon. Seas \ngenerated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the \noffshore forecast waters of Baja California, south of Punta \nEugenia, on Sat. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf \nof California, including the entrance to the Gulf. Winds and seas \nsouth of the Tehuantepec region will diminish early on Fri.  \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nGentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the\nregion, with locally higher winds and seas near the convective \nactivity. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region  \nwill maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters \nalong with mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and \nseas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El \nSalvador by Mon as an area of low pressure could develop late \nthis weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of \nMexico. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel and the remnants of Nineteen-E.\nOutside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast\nwaters, mainly N of 20N and W of 116W. Under the influence of this\nsystem, mainly light to gentle winds with moderate seas are noted.\nA band-like of westerly winds is south of Rachel affecting the\nwaters from 12N to 15N between 106W and 119W. Scatterometer data\nconfirmed the presence of these wind speeds. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.5N 110.0W Fri\nmorning, 19.5N 110.7W Fri afternoon, 19.6N 111.5W Sat morning, \n19.8N 112.5W Sat afternoon, 20.0N 113.5W Sun morning, and 20.1N \n114.6W Sun afternoon. Rachel will change little in intensity as \nit moves to near 20.2N 117.3W Mon afternoon. The area of fresh to\nstrong westerly winds S of Rachel will persist over the next 48\nhours. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across\nthe forecast waters, covering roughly the area from 10N to 25N\nbetween 100W and 120W over the next couple of days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215103782184779783", "issued": "2026-10-01T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215103782184779783"}