{"id": "1215093302129917959", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-01T21:00:00Z", "msg": "018\nWTPA42 PHFO 012044\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  45\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Thu Oct 01 2026\n\nNolo is gradually becoming better organized.  Moderate-to-deep \nconvection has made a comeback near the center, with a large spiral \nband noted in the eastern semicircle.  Additionally, microwave data \nindicate that the low-level core of the system remains fairly \nintact.  The current intensity is held at 50 kt as the satellite \nestimates haven't quite caught up with the earlier scatterometer \npass.  \n \nThe storm continues to move slowly to the northwest.  A subtropical \nhigh over the west-central Pacific is forecast to build north of \nthe cyclone during the next few days.  This evolution is expected \nto cause Nolo to turn westward by tomorrow and pick up a lot of \nforward speed over the weekend while moving generally west- \nnorthwestward, south of the main atolls of the northwestern \nHawaiian Islands.  Similar to the last advisory, the new forecast \nis nudged a bit the north to come into better agreement with the \nGoogle DeepMind and HCCA aids.  \n\nAfter the recent failed extratropical transition, it will take a \nbit of time to re-build the warm-core structure aloft, so only a \ngradual strengthening is shown for the next 24 h.  However, with \nconvection near the center already, combined with the forecast drop \nin shear and increase in SSTs during the next 2-3 days, these \nfactors suggest that a significant re-strengthening episode is \ncoming.  Since the low-level core structure is already present, \nrapid intensification is a distinct possibility by the weekend, and \nthe new forecast is raised from the previous one, showing Nolo as \na major hurricane when it crosses the International Dateline.  \nIncreasing shear could cause some weakening at the end of the \nforecast period.  \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/2100Z 22.3N 165.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  02/0600Z 22.8N 166.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  02/1800Z 23.2N 167.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  03/0600Z 23.2N 168.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  03/1800Z 23.1N 171.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 60H  04/0600Z 23.4N 175.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  04/1800Z 24.1N 178.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  05/1800Z 25.7N 175.0E  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  06/1800Z 26.2N 167.9E   95 KT 110 MPH\n \n"}