{"msg": "036\nAXNT20 KNHC 011709\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Thu Oct 1 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 31W from\n06N to 20N, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate\nconvection is observed from 09N to 15N between 26W and 38W. \nAn eastern Caribbean tropical wave has been analyzed along 66W\nfrom 19N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers\nand isolated thunderstorms are occurring E of the wave axis to\nabout 62W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and continues\nto 11N36W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 10N44W to the coastal border\nof Venezuela and Guyana. Numerous moderate to strong convection is\nseen from 03N to 11N and E of 20W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nDivergence aloft, abundant moisture, and a surface trough over the\neastern Yucatan Peninsula combine to produce a few showers and \nthunderstorms over the SE Gulf waters S of 28N and E of 88W. A \nsurface trough analyzed from the Bay of Campeche along the E coast\nof Mexico supports more scattered showers and thunderstorms over \nthe western Gulf waters. Otherwise, a modest pressure gradient\nsupports moderate to fresh ESE winds and 3-6 ft seas across much\nof the Gulf.\nFor the forecast, an upper-level low will promote scattered \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms over the SE Gulf today, \nspreading to the N Gulf on Fri. A tightening pressure gradient \nwill increase SE winds up to fresh to locally strong over the E \nand central Gulf tonight into Fri night. An weak cold moving \nacross Texas will weaken the pressure gradient, allowing the winds\nacross the Gulf to diminish on Sat and Sun. On Sun, the front \nwill reach the NW Gulf, extending from the Florida panhandle to \njust offshore the Texas-Mexico border to near Veracruz on Mon \nmorning. Winds behind the front should only be N to NE moderate to\nlocally fresh.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in\nthe eastern Caribbean.\nA middle to upper level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is drawing\nabundant moisture from the E Pacific into the W Caribbean, which \ncontinues to fuel scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W \nof 75W. The East Pacific monsoon trough also extends across the\nfar SW Caribbean, supporting scattered strong convection S of 13N\nbetween 75W and 82W. High pressure north of the area is \nsupporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of \nthe Caribbean and moderate seas. Winds up to strong speeds are \nobserved off NW Colombia and in the Gulfs of Venezuela and \nHonduras.\nFor the forecast, an upper-level low currently over the Yucatan \nwith abundant tropical moisture will support scattered showers and\nisolated thunderstorms west of 80W through Fri. The pressure \ngradient between the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean and the \nColombian Low will tighten some between tonight and Sat night. \nThis will force fresh to locally strong trades over the S central \nCaribbean and over the Gulf of Honduras. As a frontal boundary \nreaches the waters north of the Bahamas, the pressure gradient \nwill slacken again from Sun through early next week leading toward\nonly moderate trades across the Caribbean.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nDivergence aloft and abundant moisture continues to sustain\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 70W.\nMeanwhile, the remnants of Fay are interacting with an upper-level\nlow to produce scattered moderate to strong convection from 22N \nto 28N and between 53W and 60W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds \nand seas of 6-8 ft are found in the area described. To the SE, a \nsurface trough analyzed from 18N33W to 11N43W is supporting \nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along and near the \ntrough axis.\nIn the rest of the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh easterly \nwinds prevail S of 20N and west of 30W, with moderate to fresh NE \nwinds prevailing across all areas E of 30W away from the monsoon \ntrough. Areas north of 20N are seeing gentle to moderate or \nweaker winds prevail, outside of the Bahamas where a surface \ntrough along the FL Peninsula is forcing moderate to fresh SE \nwinds. Seas are 6-10 ft across areas N of 20N and E of 30W, where\npost-frontal northerly swell is supporting these higher wave \nheights. Seas are 4-7 ft across much of the remaining Atlantic \naway from the remnants of Fay.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated \nthunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W \nthrough at least Fri. Meanwhile, a surface trough - associated \nwith the remnants of Fay - will support similar shower and \nthunderstorm activity over the next couple days north of 22N and \neast of 65W. Trades just north of Hispaniola will boost to fresh \nto locally strong tonight and Fri night. Otherwise, winds and seas\nwill be quiescent through Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front may \nreach the waters off of NE Florida Mon night, with increasing \nwinds and building seas behind the boundary.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215051207122059271", "issued": "2026-10-01T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215051207122059271"}