{"id": "1215024275749306375", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-01T15:00:00Z", "msg": "492\nWTPA42 PHFO 011452\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  44\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Thu Oct 01 2026\n\nNolo has made a bit of a recovery overnight.  Satellite imagery \nshows that bursts of deep convection are forming in the northwestern \nquadrant of the storm, with some outflow becoming apparent as well.  \nWhile conventional satellite estimates remain barely at \ntropical-storm strength, scatterometer data from overnight a bit \nsurprisingly showed winds over 45 kt.  Given the low bias of the \ninstrument, the current intensity is set to 50 kt.\n\nThe storm is moving slowly to the west-northwest.  Nolo should creep \nto the west-northwest or northwest today while it becomes under the \ninfluence of a distant high located over the subtropical \nwest-central Pacific.  This high is forecast to strengthen \nsignificantly during the next few days, which is likely to steer \nNolo much faster to the west or west-northwest this weekend into \nearly next week.  The new forecast is shifted a little to the north \nin the short-range to come into agreement with the various consensus \nestimates, then is very similar to the previous advisory at long \nrange.  \n\nLittle change in strength is expected for about the next day while \nvertical wind shear remains high within a dry environment.  However, \na notable change occurs this weekend as Nolo will move on the \nnorthern side of an upper-level low, causing shear to drop off while \nit moves over much warmer waters.  This change should allow Nolo to \nmarkedly strengthen by late this weekend, and the storm could be \nclose to a major hurricane again by the time it nears the Dateline \nin 3-4 days.  This is the solution shown by almost all of the \nregional hurricane models, and the guidance trends from the last \ncycle are upward.  Thus, the intensity forecast is increased from \nthe previous one, primarily due to the initial wind speed in the \nfirst day or so, then raised at longer range given the higher model \nguidance. I should mention that this forecast could be too \nconservative in a few days given the forecast upper-level wind \npattern.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/1500Z 21.9N 165.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  02/0000Z 22.3N 166.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  02/1200Z 22.9N 166.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  03/0000Z 23.1N 168.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  03/1200Z 22.9N 170.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  04/0000Z 23.0N 173.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  04/1200Z 23.4N 177.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  05/1200Z 25.0N 176.2E   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  06/1200Z 25.8N 169.0E   90 KT 105 MPH\n \n"}