{"msg": "638\nAXNT20 KNHC 010955\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Thu Oct 1 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0925 UTC.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nSenegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N36W. A\nsurface trough is analyzed along 41W, south of 18N. The ITCZ\nextends from 11N43W to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Scattered\nmoderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 15N\nand between 25W and 37W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA moderate pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge over the\nwestern Atlantic and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico support\nmoderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of\nthe basin. Divergence aloft and abundant moisture combine to\nproduce a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SE Gulf\nwaters, while drier conditions are noted elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, the storm activity over the SE Gulf will spread\nover much of the basin over the next few days. A moderate \npressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic \nand lower pressures over Texas and Mexico result in moderate to \nfresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the Gulf waters. The\ngradient will weaken from west to east Fri into the weekend as a \nfrontal boundary approaches the western Gulf waters and a trough \nforms over the central Gulf. The front may move into the basin by \nthe end of the weekend with weakening winds and subsiding seas \nahead of it. Increasing winds and building seas are possible \nbehind the drifting front. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA middle to upper level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is drawing\nabundant moisture from the E Pacific into the W Caribbean, which \ncontinues to fuel scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W \nof 75W. Meanwhile, a surface trough over the eastern Caribbean is\nproducing some shower activity in the area.\nHigh pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh\neasterly trade winds across much of the Caribbean and moderate\nseas. Winds pulse to strong speeds off NW Colombia and in the\nGulfs of Venezuela and Honduras.\nFor the forecast, divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture\nwill support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of \n75W over the next few days. High pressure north of the area will \nsupport pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the \ncentral Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras into Sat night. \nModerate or weaker winds will prevail in the rest of the basin. \nLater, a frontal boundary will slide into the Gulf of America and \nwestern Atlantic this weekend, resulting in a weakening pressure \ngradient across the Caribbean as the ridge retreats. Moderate to \nlocally fresh winds will then dominate the basin into early next \nweek.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nDivergence aloft and abundant moisture continues to sustain\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 70W.\nMeanwhile, the remnants of Fay are interacting with an upper-level\nlow to produce showers and isolated thunderstorms from 22N to 27N\nand between 53W and 63W. Moderate to occasionally strong easterly\nwinds and seas of 6-8 ft are found in the area described.\nElsewhere west of 55W, high pressure dominates forcing moderate to\nfresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas south of 27N.\nLight to gentle winds and seas of 2-5 ft are noted north of 27N. \nIn the rest of the tropical Atlantic, moderate to locally fresh\neasterly winds prevail west of 25W. Seas of 6-8 ft are evident\nnorth of 24N and east of 55W, while mainly moderate seas are\noccurring elsewhere west of 25W. A tighter pressure gradient in\nthe eastern Atlantic supports moderate to locally fresh northerly\nwinds and seas of 4-8 ft east of 25W.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated\nthunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 70W \nthrough at least Fri. Meanwhile, a weakening surface trough, \nassociated with the remnants of Fay, will support similar storm \nactivity over the next few days as it moves westward between \nBermuda and the NE Caribbean. A broad ridge will persist across \nthe region into the weekend supporting moderate to locally fresh \neasterly winds and moderate seas south of 25N. Winds will pulse to\nstrong speeds off N Hispaniola this evening and tonight. Moderate\nor weaker winds will prevail elsewhere. Looking ahead, a frontal \nboundary may reach the waters off NE Florida late this weekend \ninto early next week, resulting in increasing winds and building \nseas behind the drifting boundary.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214965789991337991", "issued": "2026-10-01T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214965789991337991"}