{"id": "1214951735963320327", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-01T09:00:00Z", "msg": "733\nWTPA42 PHFO 010844\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  43\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Wed Sep 30 2026\n\nNolo's convection continues to dissipate. Satellite imagery this\nevening reveals warming cloud-top temperatures across remnant\nconvection to the northwest of the low-level circulation, with dry\nair across the storm's southern semicircle. The latest subjective\nDvorak intensity estimates from both JTWC and HFO rate Nolo at 2.5\nor 35 kt, with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranging from 32 to\n39 kt. Based on these data, Nolo's intensity has been held steady \nat a generous 40 kt, with the lack of in situ data being the \nprimary reason for making no change. \n \nInitial motion was estimated to be 285/3 kt. Nolo's forward speed is\nbeginning to increase as a high pressure ridge downstream weakens.\nTrack guidance exhibits strong agreement on keeping Nolo on a\nwest-northwestward to northwest motion over the next 24 hours,\nbefore shifting closer to due west for the rest of the week. The\nsystem is then forecast to turn west-northwest over the weekend and\ngain forward motion as it is picked up by stronger subtropical\nsteering flow. The latest NHC track forecast shifts Nolo's path a\nlittle to the north to capture its initial motion better, and\ngenerally falls between the previous advisory and HCCA guidance.\n \nNolo will struggle to regain its convection so long as it remains in \nan environment characterized by strong vertical wind shear and \nrelatively dry mid-level air. Guidance, however, generally keeps \nNolo intact long enough before entering a more favorable environment \nby the end of the week, allowing for gradual re-strengthening. The \nlatest NHC intensity forecast brings Nolo's max strength down \nslightly, however, as model consensus generally favors a slower \nstrengthening cycle. The forecast still falls roughly within the \nmedian of the guidance envelope.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/0900Z 21.8N 165.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 22.0N 165.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  02/0600Z 22.4N 166.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  02/1800Z 22.7N 167.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  03/0600Z 22.9N 169.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  03/1800Z 22.9N 171.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  04/0600Z 23.3N 175.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  05/0600Z 24.7N 178.0E   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  06/0600Z 25.7N 171.0E   85 KT 100 MPH\n \n"}