{"msg": "746\nAXNT20 KNHC 010609\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Thu Oct 1 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0550 UTC.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues\nalong 10N24W to 10N34W. The ITCZ extends from 10N40W to 07N52W to\n07N58W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N\nto 16N between 23W and 34W. Scattered moderate convection is in\nthe vicinity of a surface trough from 12N to 20N between 32W and \n43W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nThe pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern \nUnited States extending a ridge E of 90W, and lower pressures in \nTexas and Mexico support moderate to fresh SE winds across the \nbasin tonight. Seas are slight over the offshores and offshore\nVeracruz and moderate to 6 ft elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms \nwill linger in the eastern Gulf tonight and spread over much of \nthe basin over the next few days. The pressure gradient across the\nbasin will weaken from west to east by Fri into the weekend as a \nfrontal boundary approaches the western Gulf waters, possibly \nmoving into the basin by the end of the weekend with weakening \nwinds and subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing winds and \nbuilding seas are possible behind the very slow moving or stalling\nfront. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA middle to upper level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is drawing\nabundant moisture from the E Pacific into the W Caribbean, which\ncontinues to fuel scattered heavy showers and tstsms W of 75W.\nRecent scatterometer data show gust to gale force winds in the\narea of strongest convection located in the lee side of Cuba and\nWSW of Jamaica. With a front and two surface trough over the W\nAtlantic waters, the pressure gradient has diminished resulting in\nmoderate to fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean per \nrecent scatterometer data. Elsewhere, except in the areas of\nconvection mentioned above, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas\nbasin-wide are moderate to 6 ft, except likely rough in the areas\nof strong convection in the W Caribbean.\nFor the forecast, divergent flow aloft will support scattered \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms W of 75W over the next few \ndays. High pressure north of the area will support pulsing fresh \nto strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean and in the\nGulf of Honduras through the remainder of the week and into the \nweekend. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in the rest of the \nbasin. Later, a frontal boundary will slide into the Gulf of \nAmerica and western Atlantic this weekend, resulting in a \nweakening pressure gradient across the Caribbean as the ridge \nretreats. Moderate to locally fresh winds will then dominate the \nbasin into early next week.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nMiddle to upper level diffluent flow over the E Florida offshores\nis supporting scattered showers across the central and northern\nBahamas and eastward to 65W. Farther east, the remnants of Fay,\nanalyzed as a surface trough near 53W are bringing scattered\nshowers and tstms to the offshores from 20N to 27N between 55W and\n65W. In the central subtropical waters, a cold front extends from\n31N42W SW to 28N47W where it stalls to 27N51W. Ahead of the front,\nsurface high pressure of 1021 mb is anchored near 27N41W. Finally,\na stationary front prevails over the Canary Islands to 27N20W to\n31N31W. None of these frontal features show significant\nconvection. In terms of winds, moderate to fresh E winds prevail\nin the Great Bahama Bank and Bahamas offshores as well as in the\nvicinity of Fay remnants. Finally, moderate to fresh NNE winds are\nbetween the NW coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands.\nModerate seas are across the subtropical Atlantic. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated \nthunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 70W \nthrough at least Fri. High pressure will persist across the region\ninto the weekend supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly \nwinds south of 25N. Winds will pulse to strong speeds off northern\nHispaniola and at the entrance of the Windward Passage tonight \nand Thu night. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere. \nMeanwhile, the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay, currently \napproaching the offshore waters, will move west of 55W tonight. \nThis area will continue to weaken and gradually dissipate by late \nthis week. Looking ahead, a frontal boundary may reach the waters \noff NE Florida early next week, resulting in increasing winds and \nbuilding seas behind the slow moving or stalling boundary.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214921389131694087", "issued": "2026-10-01T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214921389131694087"}