{"id": "1214881346468446215", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-01T03:00:00Z", "msg": "947\nWTPA42 PHFO 010245\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  42\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Wed Sep 30 2026\n\nNolo's structure has degraded quite a bit over the last couple of \nhours. The storm has lost its defined center, and convection across \nthe southern flank has weakened substantially based on satellite \nimagery. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC \nboth assigned Nolo a Final T-Number of 2.5, and UW-CIMSS objective \nintensity estimates range from 27 to 42 kt. Based on these data, \nNolo's initial intensity was lowered slightly to 40 kt. \n\nThe storm's forward motion has slowed to a crawl, and initial motion \nwas set at 270/1 kt, although confidence is low on Nolo's exact \nmotion at 0300 UTC since its center position has hardly moved over \nthe last two hours. Nolo's lack of motion is being driven by strong \nhigh pressure to its northwest and an upper-level trough to its \nnortheast. Global models generally depict Nolo increasing in forward \nspeed as it moves westward over the course of the next several days, \nas an upper-level low over the west Pacific weakens the \naforementioned high. So long as the current synoptic pattern is in \nplace, however, Nolo may appear nearly stationary at times. Little \nwas changed in the latest track forecast, other than to nudge it \ntoward the latest HCCA guidance.\n\nNolo continues to be in a hostile environment defined by strong \nvertical wind shear, relatively dry mid-level air, and marginal \nSSTs. Guidance generally depicts shear backing off as the storm \nmoves westward over warming SSTs, however, Nolo may struggle to \nre-intensify in the meantime. The latest NHC intensity forecast \nkeeps Nolo's strength relatively steady overnight, before \nenvironmental conditions are expected to allow for a gradual \nincrease in intensity starting late Thursday onward. This forecast \nlies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. \n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/0300Z 21.5N 164.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  01/1200Z 21.6N 165.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  02/0000Z 21.9N 165.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  02/1200Z 22.3N 166.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  03/0000Z 22.6N 167.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  03/1200Z 22.7N 170.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  04/0000Z 22.8N 173.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  05/0000Z 24.2N 179.8E   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  06/0000Z 25.5N 173.1E   90 KT 105 MPH\n \n"}