{"id": "1214879397324193799", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-01T03:00:00Z", "msg": "639\nWTPZ43 KNHC 010235\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 PM MST Wed Sep 30 2026\n \nSatellite imagery indicates that Rachel's convective structure has \nchanged little over the past several hours. Deep convection \ncontinues to burst near the center, with cloud-top temperatures as \ncold as -85 C. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from \nTAFB is T4.5/77 kt, while objective estimates have ranged from 65 to \n85 kt. Given these estimates and the persistent deep convection, \nthe initial intensity is increased to 80 kt.\n \nRachel continues to move northwestward, or 320/6 kt. A northwestward \nmotion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or \nso as the cyclone moves along the southwestern periphery of a \nmid-level ridge while a mid- to upper-level trough remains over the \nsouthwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. As the trough \nlifts northeastward and weakens, a ridge is forecast to build north \nof Rachel, causing the system to gradually turn west-northwestward \nand then westward later this week. The track guidance remains in \ngood agreement on this overall scenario, and the latest NHC track \nforecast is essentially an update of the previous prediction, lying \nnear the HCCA and GDMI aids.\n \nEnvironmental conditions should remain generally favorable for \nstrengthening during the next couple of days, with very warm sea \nsurface temperatures and plenty of mid-level moisture along the \nforecast track. Persistent easterly vertical wind shear of around 15 \nto 20 kt may be a limiting factor in the short term, but the shear \nis forecast to gradually relax thereafter. Rachel could strengthen \nrapidly by Thursday, especially if a more persistent inner core \nbecomes established, and is forecast to become a major hurricane \nwithin the next couple of days. Thereafter, progressively cooler sea \nsurface temperatures and dry mid-level air should induce a gradual \nweakening trend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the \nprevious advisory, lying above the guidance envelope in the short \nterm before trending toward the upper end of the guidance \nthereafter.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of\nMexico, wind gusts of tropical-storm force are possible along\nportions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight.\n \n2. Outer bands from Rachel will continue to produce locally heavy\nrainfall across portions of coastal southwest Mexico. This rainfall\nmay produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in\nareas of steep terrain.\n \n3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico\nand the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next several\ndays.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/0300Z 19.2N 108.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  01/1200Z 19.6N 109.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  02/0000Z 19.8N 109.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  02/1200Z 20.0N 110.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  03/0000Z 20.1N 111.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 60H  03/1200Z 20.2N 111.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  04/0000Z 20.4N 112.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  05/0000Z 20.7N 114.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  06/0000Z 20.9N 118.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n \n"}