{"msg": "094\nAXNT20 KNHC 302214\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Thu Oct 01 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2200 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 86W, south of\n20N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is observed over the western Gulf, associated\nwith an upper low over the Yucatan peninsula.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, extends to \n12N20W, and then to 17N30W and on to 10N40W. The ITCZ extends \nfrom 10N40W to 08N50W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is\nfrom 10N to 14N between 20W and 30W, as well as from 12N to 18N \nbetween 32W and 38W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA mid to upper low is centered on the north coast of the Yucatan\npeninsula, supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the\nsouth-central and southeast Gulf. \nDeep-layer troughing continues to support showers and \nthunderstorms across the Florida Straits and the far SE Gulf. \nHigh pressure over the eastern United States supports gentle to\nmoderate SE winds and slight seas across the basin.\nFor the forecast, showers and thunderstorms will linger in the SE\nGulf through at least tonight. The pressure gradient between high\npressure over the eastern United States and lower pressures in \nTexas and Mexico support increasing winds to moderate to fresh \nspeeds across the basin later this evening. The gradient will \nweaken from west to east by the end of the week into the weekend \nas a frontal boundary approaches the western Gulf waters, possibly\nmoving into the basin by the end of the weekend with weakening \nwinds and subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing winds and \nbuilding seas are possible behind the very slow moving or stalling\nfront. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed over\nthe western Gulf mainly west of 80W, associated with an upper low\nover the Yucatan peninsula. High pressure over the western\nAtlantic is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the\nbasin. Seas are 5-7 ft over the central Caribbean and 3-5 ft\nelsewhere. \nFor the forecast, high pressure north of the area will\nsupport pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the\ncentral Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the\nremainder of the week and into the weekend. Moderate or weaker\nwinds will prevail in the rest of the basin. Later, a frontal\nboundary will slide into the Gulf of America and western\nAtlantic this weekend, resulting in a weakening pressure\ngradient across the Caribbean as the ridge retreats. Moderate to\nlocally fresh winds will then dominate the basin into early next\nweek. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nDeep-layer troughing over the Gulf continues to support scattered\nmoderate convection across the Bahamas and areas southward toward\nCuba. Another upper low centered over 20N60W is supporting\nscattered moderate convection from 22N to 26N between 55W and 65W,\nto include convection related to the remnant low of Fay near \n23N52W. Outside of convection, gentle to moderate E to NE winds \nand moderate seas prevail across much of the Atlantic.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated \nthunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 70W \nthrough at least tonight. High pressure will persist across the \nregion over the remainder of the week and into the weekend \nsupporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of 25N. \nModerate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere. Meanwhile, the \nremnants of Post- Tropical Cyclone Fay currently just east of the \noffshore waters may move west of 55W later tonight. This area will\ncontinue to weaken and gradually dissipate by late this week. \nLooking ahead, a frontal boundary may reach the waters off NE \nFlorida early next week, resulting in increasing winds and \nbuilding seas behind the slow moving or stalling boundary.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214827958774169607", "issued": "2026-09-30T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214827958774169607"}