{"msg": "030\nAXPZ20 KNHC 302107\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 18.8N 108.0W at 30/2100 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90\nkt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection extends out\nto 360 nm in the southwest semicircle, and 150 nm in the\nnortheast semicircle. Seas near the center are as high as 33 ft.\nOn the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to move \naway from mainland Mexico and between the southern tip of the Baja\nCalifornia Peninsula and the Revillagigedo Islands through \nFri. Rachel is expected to produce additional rainfall totals\nof 2 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches,\nacross coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero,\nMichoac\u00e1n, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce\nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of\nsteep terrain. Swells generated by Rachel will affect the \nsouthwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and \nspread northward along the coast of west- central Mexico and the \nBaja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These \nswells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current\nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice for more details.\nTropical Depression Nineteen-E is centered near 14.9N 127.0W at\n30/2100 UTC, moving east at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with\ngusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm to\nthe northeast of the center. Little change in strength is \nforecast during the next couple of days, and this system is \nexpected to degenerate into a post- tropical cyclone by late \nThursday.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at\n  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Rachel and T.D. \n  Nineteen-E.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N90W to 10N99W, from\n15N115W to 15N125W, and from 12N131W to 13N137W to beyond \n11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is \nfrom 03N to 06N between 85W and 90W, from 05N to 12N between 95W \nand 110W, and from 06N to 08N between 130W and 135W. \n \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel.\nRachel is impacting the area between Cabo Corrientes, Socorro\nIsland, south of the southern tip of the Baja California\npeninsula. Fresh to strong SW to W winds and rough seas also\npersist off southern Mexico, impacting the coast from Colima to\nOaxaca. Large swell from Rachel is impacting the waters off Baja\nCalifornia Sur and the southern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, \nmoderate northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle \nwinds and slight seas over the central and northern Gulf of \nCalifornia.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 18.8N 108.0W at 2 PM \nPDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are\n75 kt with gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central pressure is \n978 mb. Rachel will move to 19.1N 108.6W Thu morning, 19.6N \n109.2W Thu afternoon, then to 19.9N 109.9W by Fri morning, just \nto the north of Socorro Island. Rachel will continue to 20.0N \n110.8W Fri afternoon, 20.1N 111.8W Sat morning, and 20.3N 113.0W \nSat afternoon. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves\nto the northwest of Clarion Island Sun afternoon. Elsewhere, \nstrong winds and rough seas will develop in the Tehuantepec \nregion tonight and continue into Fri.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nNW swell from Rachel is reaching the waters off Guatemala where\nseas are 7 ft. Gentle breezes and slight seas persist off the \nremainder of Central America. Moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 6 \nft seas in a mix of swell are noted off Colombia and Ecuador. \nFor the forecast, a light pressure gradient will maintain \nmoderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with \nmostly moderate seas through the period. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel and T.D. Nineteen-E.\nThe remnant low of Odalys is near 19N126W with a pressure of \n1008 mb. Elsewhere, and away from the tropical cyclones, fresh \nnortheast winds and rough seas in a mix of swell are ongoing \nnorth of 18N and west of 125W.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Depression Nineteen-E will move to \n15.2N 125.3W Thu morning, become a remnant low and move to 15.3N \n123.1W Thu afternoon, 15.3N 120.5W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri\nafternoon. Wind and seas will diminish elsewhere west of 120W \nthrough Fri. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas will persist\nsouth of Rachel from 05N to 15N east of 125W. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214814804446347271", "issued": "2026-09-30T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214814804446347271"}