{"id": "1214809961066725383", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-30T21:00:00Z", "msg": "334\nWTPZ43 KNHC 302042\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n200 PM MST Wed Sep 30 2026\n\nData from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft along with conventional \nand microwave satellite imagery shows that Rachel has been \nre-organizing for the past several hours. Microwave data near 13Z \nindicated that the cyclone had a ragged inner core with no \norganized eyewall. During the time that the aircraft has been in the \nstorm, the eyewall has gotten better defined in the southeastern \nsemicircle and the radius of maximum winds is getting smaller.  The \nmaximum 700-mb flight-level winds reported by the aircraft has been \n82 kt, and the central pressure is currently near 978 mb.  Based \nmainly on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is held at 75 \nkt. It should be noted that shear analyses show that the hurricane \nis still be affected by about 20 kt of northeasterly vertical wind \nshear.\n\nThe initial motion is still northwestward or 315/7 kt. Rachel \ncontinues to move along the southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric \nridge over northern and central Mexico.  This ridge is weakening \ndue to the effects of a large mid- to upper-level trough seen in \nwater vapor imagery over the southwestern United States and \nnorthwestern Mexico.  As this trough moves northeastward and \nweakens during the next couple of days, this should allow another \nridge to build to the north of the tropical cyclone.  As a result, \nRachel is forecast to turn west-northwest and pass well south of \nthe Baja California Peninsula before continuing westward away from \nland. The new forecast track is a little to the north of the \nprevious track for the first 60 h, and thereafter is similar to the \nprevious track.\n \nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening through \nat least 48 h, and rapid strengthening is a possibility if the \ntighter inner core that Rachel is trying to develop maintains \nitself. Thus, the early portion of the intensity forecast keeps the \nsame rate of intensification to a major hurricane as the previous \nforecasts. However, there remains two possible negative influences \nincluding the ongoing shear and Rachel crossing a track of cooler \nwater left by Polo. Later on the forecast period, decreasing sea \nsurface temperatures under the forecast track and dry air \nentrainment could cause some weakening. The new intensity forecast \nis again an update of the previous forecast, and it lies near the \nupper edge of the intensity guidance.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of\nMexico, wind gusts of tropical-storm force are possible along \nportions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight.\n \n2. Outer bands from Rachel will continue to produce locally heavy \nrainfall across portions of coastal southwest Mexico. This rainfall \nmay produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in \nareas of steep terrain.\n \n3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico\nand the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next several\ndays.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  30/2100Z 18.8N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  01/0600Z 19.1N 108.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  01/1800Z 19.6N 109.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  02/0600Z 19.9N 109.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  02/1800Z 20.0N 110.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 60H  03/0600Z 20.1N 111.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  03/1800Z 20.3N 113.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  04/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  05/1800Z 20.6N 117.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n \n"}