{"id": "1214809574147620871", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-30T21:00:00Z", "msg": "306\nWTPA42 PHFO 302040\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  41\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Wed Sep 30 2026\n \nSignificant wind shear has caused Nolo to rapidly weaken over the \npast day, with the remaining deep convection displaced well away \nfrom the fully exposed center of circulation. The tropical storm has \nalso become increasingly vertically shallow and is currently \nwobbling, likely in response to the low-level steering flow. The \nlatest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 35-45 kt, while \nobjective intensity estimates ranged from 31-41 kt. The initial \nintensity is set at a potentially generous 45 kt for this advisory.\n \nNolo is currently situated between a strong upper-level low to the \nnortheast and a building ridge centered to the northwest. Despite \nthis pattern, the tropical storm is drifting toward the \nsouth-southeast, and additional small wobbles in the motion are \npossible over the next day or so. A turn back toward the west is \nforecast by Thursday, followed by a slow forward motion over the \nsubsequent day as the upper-level low pulls away from Nolo and the \nridge expands north of the cyclone. By this weekend, Nolo is \nexpected to accelerate as a new area of high pressure develops to \nits north. On the forecast track, Nolo is expected to cross the \nInternational Date Line around days 4-5. The latest NHC forecast has \nbeen shifted to the left from the previous one to account for \nthe southward initial motion, and is also closer to the latest HCCA \nand Google DeepMind solutions.\n\nVery hostile environmental conditions are expected to inhibit any \nstrengthening over the next day or so. Beyond 24-36 h, Nolo is \nforecast to move over warmer ocean temperatures and into an \nenvironment with substantially lower wind shear, supporting gradual \nre-strengthening. However, persistent dry mid-level air could limit \nthe rate of intensification despite the otherwise favorable \nconditions. The latest NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle \nof the guidance envelope, with Nolo expected to regain hurricane \nstrength in a couple of days. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  30/2100Z 21.6N 164.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  01/0600Z 21.8N 165.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  01/1800Z 21.9N 165.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  02/0600Z 22.3N 166.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  02/1800Z 22.6N 167.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  03/0600Z 22.8N 168.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  03/1800Z 23.0N 171.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  04/1800Z 24.1N 178.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  05/1800Z 25.5N 174.9E   90 KT 105 MPH\n \n"}