{"id": "1214808131201728519", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-30T21:00:00Z", "msg": "213\nWTPZ44 KNHC 302033\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192026\n200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026\n\nAlthough the depression has a well-defined circulation, convection \nhas fallen apart this afternoon, with the low-level circulation \nalmost totally exposed.  Satellite intensity estimates are falling \nagain, so the initial wind speed is set to 25 kt using a blend of \nthe objective and subjective values.  \n\nThe depression is moving eastward at about 12 kt.  This general \nmotion is expected during the next couple of days as the depression \nmoves south of the remnants of Odalys and eventually starts to move \non the southwestern side of Rachel's much larger circulation.  The \ntrack forecast is shifted a little to the north, mostly based on \na more precise initial positions from visible satellite images.\n\nLittle change in intensity is shown for the depression due to \nmoderate shear and plentiful dry mid-level air, somewhat countered \nby warming SSTs.  The shear is forecast to increase somewhat along \nwith a bit drier mid-level environment, which is likely to bring an \nend to any organized convection.  Thus, the depression is forecast \nto become a remnant low in about 24 hours, similar to the latest \nglobal models simulated satellite data.  I will just mention some \nof the guidance is showing some re-intensification on Thursday, but \nthat is deemed unlikely due to the unfavorable environmental \nfactors listed above.  \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  30/2100Z 14.9N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  01/0600Z 15.2N 125.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  01/1800Z 15.3N 123.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  02/0600Z 15.3N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}