{"msg": "981\nAXNT20 KNHC 301712\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 84W, south of\n21N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated\nstrong convection is observed between 16N and 22N and W of 78W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, extends to \n16N30W, and then to 09N41W. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to the\ncoastal border of Guyana and Venezuela. Scattered moderate\nconvection is seen from 09N to 19N between 29W and 40W, as well as\nfrom 07N to 13N between 21W and 30W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nDeep-layer troughing continues to support showers and \nthunderstorms across the Florida Straits and the far SE Gulf. \nHigh pressure over the eastern United States supports moderate to \nlocally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas over the western \nGulf waters, while moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate\nseas prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, showers and thunderstorms will linger in the SE\nGulf through at least this evening. The pressure gradient between\nhigh pressure over the eastern United States and lower pressures \nin Texas and Mexico support moderate to fresh easterly winds over \nthe western Gulf waters. These winds will expand eastward across \nthe basin by tonight as the pressure gradient tightens. The \ngradient will weaken from west to east by the end of the week into\nthe weekend as a frontal boundary approaches the western Gulf \nwaters, possibly moving into the basin by the end of the weekend \nwith weakening winds and subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing \nwinds and building seas are possible behind the very slow moving \nfront. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on\nconvection in the NW Caribbean.\nThe East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW\nCaribbean, and is supporting numerous strong convection S of 16N\nand W of 78W. High pressure north of the area sustains moderate \nto fresh easterly trade winds across much of the basin, increasing\nto strong speeds off northern Colombia and along the northern end\nof the tropical wave analyzed along 84W. Seas of 4-8 ft are \nevident across the Caribbean, except for slight seas in the lee of\nCuba and Windward Passage.\nFor the forecast, a passing tropical wave and divergent flow \naloft will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W \nof 75W over the next few days. High pressure north of the area \nwill support pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the \ncentral Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the \nremainder of the week and into the weekend. Moderate or weaker \nwinds will prevail in the rest of the basin. Later, a frontal \nboundary will slide into the Gulf of America and western Atlantic \nthis weekend, resulting in a weakening pressure gradient across \nthe Caribbean as the ridge retreats. Moderate to locally fresh \nwinds will then dominate the basin into early next week.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nDeep-layer troughing continues to support scattered moderate\nconvection across the Bahamas and areas southward toward Cuba. To\nthe east, convergent surface winds between a 1019 mb high SE of \nBermuda and the remnants of Fay are supporting scattered moderate \nconvection from 21N to 28N between 55W and 63W, as well as near \nthe center of Fay's remnants. Outside of convection, gentle to \nmoderate E to NE winds and moderate seas prevail across much of \nthe Atlantic. Locally fresh winds are seen in showers N of a \nsurface trough analyzed just E of the Lesser Antilles.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist across \nthe region over the remainder of the week and into the weekend \nsupporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of 25N. \nModerate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere. Meanwhile, the \nremnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay currently east of the \noffshore waters may move west of 55W by tonight. This system will \ncontinue to weaken and may dissipate late this week. Looking \nahead, a frontal boundary may reach the waters off NE Florida \nearly next week, resulting in an increase in winds and seas behind\nthe boundary. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214768609553874951", "issued": "2026-09-30T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214768609553874951"}